Brighton vs Manchester United Betting Tips 2026

Brighton vs Manchester United: Premier League Preview

The final Sunday of the Premier League season at the Amex, and this one actually matters. Manchester United sit third and need to protect that position, while Brighton are seventh and still have enough to play for on home turf. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have been frustratingly inconsistent away from home all season, but they know how to win here. Michael Carrick’s United have been quietly impressive across the run-in, and this feels like a genuine contest.

Form and League Position

United’s recent form is the more convincing of the two. Four wins from their last five, including home victories over Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, both 3-2, plus a clean sheet away at Chelsea. That’s a side with momentum and goals in them. Benjamin Šeško leads the line with 11 goals in 30 appearances, and Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha have both hit double figures too. This is a front line that causes problems for anyone.

Brighton have been patchy. A 3-0 home win over Wolves looks good, but sandwiched either side are losses at Leeds and Newcastle, the latter a 3-1 defeat. Danny Welbeck has been excellent all season, 13 goals in 36 appearances, and he remains a genuine threat at home. But Jack Hinshelwood is now listed as a doubt, and he’s contributed 4 goals and 3 assists in 26 games, a real engine in Hürzeler’s system.

The table says it plainly enough. United are third on 68 points. Brighton are seventh on 53. That’s a 15-point gap, and it reflects how these two have operated across the full campaign. United’s home record is outstanding, 13 wins from 19 at home, though the Amex is a different test entirely.

Head-to-Head

Brighton fans will take plenty of confidence from recent meetings. They beat United 3-1 at Old Trafford in January 2025 in the league, then again 2-1 in the FA Cup at Old Trafford back in January 2026. United did put four past them in October, a 4-2 win at home in the league last season, so the head-to-head is competitive and goals tend to follow when these two meet.

The last time they met at the Amex, Brighton edged it 2-1 back in August 2024. Hürzeler knows how to set his side up against Carrick’s team, and that shouldn’t be underestimated.

Injuries and Team News

Brighton are without Solomon March and Carlos Baleba, and Hinshelwood’s availability is also in doubt. Losing Baleba from midfield is significant given how much defensive work he contributes, and Hinshelwood’s absence would weaken both ends of the pitch. Carrick has his own concerns, with Noussair Mazraoui and both Matheus Cunha and Joshua Zirkzee listed as missing. Cunha going out is particularly notable given he had 10 goals and 2 assists in 33 appearances this season. That’s a big loss up front, though Šeško and Mbeumo are more than capable of covering the gap.

There’s also been mention of Kaoru Mitoma being left off Japan’s World Cup roster through injury, which is a further blow to Brighton’s attacking options for this one.

The Betting Angle

The odds are doing something slightly strange here. Brighton at 1.94 to win at home looks like the market is doing Hürzeler’s side a favour based on name and venue, but United are the better team across every meaningful metric this season. Third in the table, better goal difference, stronger away form than Brighton have managed at home in a number of situations.

United at 3.8 catches the eye. They’ve won four of their last five, they’re playing for a top-three finish, and Brighton are missing key personnel in midfield and attack. Carrick will have this side set up to win. The Amex is never easy, but United have the quality and the motivation. The 4-2 win earlier this season showed what this front line can do when it clicks, even without Cunha, Šeško and Mbeumo is still a scary combination.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 is short for a reason, given how frequently both teams find the net in this fixture, but the value pick is Carrick’s side to take the three points.