Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth Betting Tips 2026

Final Day Stakes: Form and Standings

This is the last game of the 2025/26 Premier League season, and the stories heading into Sunday could not be more different for these two clubs. Bournemouth sit sixth on 56 points, right in the thick of the European conversation. Nottingham Forest are 16th on 43 points, looking over their shoulder at the bottom three. The stakes are real at The City Ground.

Forest’s recent form is a mixed bag. A terrific 3-1 win away at Chelsea was followed by a home draw with Newcastle and then a defeat at Manchester United. They also lost heavily to Aston Villa in the Europa League semi-final second leg, 0-4 at Villa Park, though they had won the first leg 1-0 at The City Ground. Europa League ambitions are over, and now it’s about survival. Vítor Pereira’s side are not safe yet, and a home loss today could be catastrophic if results elsewhere go against them.

Bournemouth, by contrast, are flying. Andoni Iraola’s side have taken 13 points from their last five Premier League matches, with wins at Fulham and Newcastle and a 3-0 home dismantling of Crystal Palace. They’ve scored nine times in their last five across all competitions and conceded only four. They arrive here with nothing to fear and a European spot to fight for.

Head-to-Head

The recent history between these clubs is damning for Forest. Bournemouth won 2-0 at the Vitality Stadium in October 2025 and before that hammered Forest 5-0 at home in January 2025. The only time Forest have avoided defeat in the last five meetings was a 1-1 draw at The City Ground in August 2024. Bournemouth have won three of the last five and scored 12 goals in the process. There is no trend here that gives you confidence in a Forest win.

Team News and Injuries

Forest have problems at the back. Murillo is out with a muscle injury, and Willy Boly is sidelined with a knee problem. Losing two central defenders heading into a game with this much pressure on the result is a serious concern. Callum Hudson-Odoi is also out, which hurts their attacking options given he has contributed three goals and four assists in 30 appearances this season.

Bournemouth are without Ryan Christie through suspension following a red card, and Alex Jimenez is also suspended. Jordi Soler is doubtful with a hamstring problem. Disruption for Iraola, but nowhere near the level of defensive fragility Forest are carrying into this one.

Goals Markets

Forest have shipped nine goals in their last five matches. Bournemouth have scored nine in theirs. Both sides have attacking firepower, with Eli Junior Kroupi on 13 league goals and Antoine Semenyo racking up 10 in just 20 appearances this season. Forest are missing Boly and Murillo at the back, and Bournemouth are the kind of side that punishes disorganised defences. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.60 looks short but it is rooted in solid logic. Under 2.5 at 2.38 is the contrarian play if you think a tense relegation atmosphere shuts the game down, but the defensive injuries make that hard to back with conviction.

The Betting Angle

The model has this as a draw or Bournemouth win, with Bournemouth given a 45% chance of taking all three points. Forest’s home record this season is poor, W4 D7 L7 at The City Ground. They do not win at home. Bournemouth’s away record is solid enough, six wins and seven draws on the road. At 2.12, the Bournemouth price is fair and probably slightly generous given the context.

Forest are not without a threat. Morgan Gibbs-White has 14 goals in 36 appearances this season and can hurt anyone on his day. But with Murillo and Boly both missing, the defensive structure Pereira relies on is compromised at the worst possible moment.

Bournemouth to win is the play. If you want a bigger price in the first goalscorer market, Eli Junior Kroupi at 6.00 is worth a look given his 13-goal season, and Evanilson at 6.50 has the quality to punish a depleted Forest backline.