3M Open Betting Tips | July 2026

PGA Tour

The 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota, where Scottie Scheffler heads the betting despite a field that looks stronger than the typical mid-summer roster. With the FedExCup Playoffs looming just weeks away, several big names are using this week to sharpen their form on a course that rewards precision over power.

TPC Twin Cities plays as one of the easier tests on the PGA Tour calendar, with winning scores routinely dipping into the low 20s under par. The par-71 layout favours accurate iron players who can take advantage of birdie-friendly par fives and reachable par fours. Strokes-gained approach will separate the contenders from the also-rans, while keeping the ball in play off the tee remains essential despite modest length off the tee not being a dealbreaker.

Outright Favourites

Scottie Scheffler sits atop the market at 28/1 with bet365, a remarkable price given our analysis puts him at 8.9% to win, implying odds closer to 10/1. The world number one has dominated PGA Tour events this season, and while this represents a step down in field strength from recent major championships, his iron play gives him a significant edge. His strokes-gained approach numbers remain consistently elite, and with an 86% probability of making the cut and 41% chance of a top-ten finish, the 28/1 available looks generous for a player of his calibre.

Tommy Fleetwood offers intriguing value at 22/1 with bet365. We rate him at 5.4% to win (18/1 implied), making the quoted price a fair reflection of his chances. The Englishman’s iron play has been sharp throughout 2026, and TPC Twin Cities should suit his game perfectly. With a 32% top-ten probability and 83% make-cut percentage, Fleetwood shapes as a solid each-way proposition at these odds, though the outright price doesn’t scream value.

Rory McIlroy stands out as a betting anomaly at 175/1 with bet365. Our ratings give him a 5.6% win probability, that’s 17/1 implied, making the triple-figure price borderline absurd. McIlroy’s approach play ranks among the field’s best, posting positive strokes-gained numbers in that category consistently. His 30% top-ten probability and 80% cut-making likelihood suggest he’s being drastically underestimated by the market. This is either a bookmaker error or a reflection of concerns not captured in the statistical profile, but the value is undeniable.

Each-Way Value

Robert MacIntyre at 150/1 with bet365 Each-Way represents exceptional each-way value on 1/5 odds, five places. We have him at 2.7% to win (36/1 implied), and while 150/1 looks like a throwaway longshot price, the Scottish left-hander’s 21% top-ten probability makes him a strong place candidate. His strokes-gained approach has been positive throughout the season, and TPC Twin Cities offers the kind of accessible setup where a hot week with the irons can vault anyone into contention.

Cameron Young also catches the eye at 150/1 with bet365 Each-Way. BonusDevil’s ratings put him at 1.9% (52/1 implied), still well short of the quoted price. With a 16% top-ten probability and 69% cut-making likelihood, Young’s ball-striking ability gives him the weaponry to challenge on this course. The each-way terms make this a speculative play worth considering, particularly given his capacity to post low numbers when everything clicks.

Jon Rahm at 50/1 with bet365 Each-Way offers genuine value. We rate him at 3.3% to win (30/1 implied), and while that still represents a significant overlay, his 24% top-ten probability and 77% make-cut percentage suggest he’s being underestimated. Rahm’s iron play remains world-class when he’s on form, and this represents exactly the kind of course where elite approach players can separate themselves from the field.

Players to Watch

Kurt Kitayama returns as defending champion, having lifted the trophy in 2025. Course form counts for plenty at TPC Twin Cities, and Kitayama’s familiarity with the layout gives him an edge beyond what the raw statistics might suggest.

Ludvig Aberg comes in at surprisingly short odds of 14/1 with William Hill despite our analysis rating him at just 2.3% (42/1 implied). The Swedish youngster’s ball-striking has been impressive in his rookie campaign, but the market appears to be overestimating his chances here. One to watch rather than back at current odds.

Si Woo Kim headlines the each-way market at an extraordinary 5/1 with Sky Bet. We have him at just 1.9% to win (51/1 implied), making this one of the most inflated prices in the field. Kim’s volatility makes him capable of anything, but this represents appalling value at such cramped odds.

Our Pick