Bournemouth 
Crystal Palace Form and Context
Bournemouth come into this in genuinely decent nick. Back-to-back away wins against Newcastle and Arsenal are not results you dismiss lightly, and Andoni Iraola's side have been competitive across the board in recent weeks. Yes, they drew at home to Leeds and Man United, but the underlying output looks solid: 8 goals scored across the last five Premier League games, with Antoine Semenyo and Elis Kroupi both in double figures for the season. Kroupi has 11 goals in 29 appearances, Semenyo 10 in just 20. That's a front line with real threat, and at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have been difficult to beat all campaign: W6 D9 L2 at home tells you this is a team that rarely gets turned over on their own patch.
Crystal Palace are the ones you need to worry about, and not in a good way. Oliver Glasner's side are 13th on 43 points, and while they have had a decent run in the UEFA Europa Conference League, the domestic form away from home is rough: W7 D2 L7 on the road in the league. The Conference League run is impressive, though. Palace beat Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 away in their semi-final second leg just 48 hours before this fixture. That's a huge result, but it's also a significant fatigue problem.
Team News
Bournemouth have Ryan Christie, Justin Kluivert, and A. Smith all listed as missing. The Kluivert situation is one to watch, though reports suggest he's had a fitness boost ahead of this game, so there's a chance he returns to the squad. Even without him, Iraola has options up top.
Palace are without Daichi Kamada, Chadi Riad, and crucially Ismaila Sarr. Sarr has 7 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances this season, so losing him is a meaningful blow to Glasner's attacking output. Add the Europa Conference League exertion on Thursday and there's a real case to make that Palace will be running on fumes by Sunday afternoon. Glasner will almost certainly rotate, but with Sarr unavailable and the squad already stretched by the European run, depth is a genuine concern.
Head-to-Head
These two met at Selhurst Park earlier this season in a wild 3-3 draw, which is probably the only reference point that matters from the recent H2H. Before that, the previous four meetings produced a combined five goals. The reverse fixture at Vitality Stadium last December ended 0-0, and there's been a pattern here of cagey games, but the xG and tempo of this current Bournemouth side makes that less likely now than it used to be.
Bournemouth have historically been the stronger side in this match-up over recent seasons, winning in 2023/24 both away and at home in the league. The 3-3 this campaign was an outlier in terms of goals, but it did confirm Palace can hurt you when they're fully fit and motivated. Right now, they're neither.
The Betting Angle
The home win at 1.70 is short but it's genuinely hard to argue against here. Bournemouth are in form, playing at the Vitality Stadium, against a side coming off a draining European trip with key absences. Palace's away record in the league is poor, they're missing Sarr, and even if Glasner gets through the semi-final joy of Thursday, he'll need to shuffle the pack significantly on Sunday. That creates mismatches and disrupted rhythm.
Iraola's side don't need a miracle to win this. They just need to show up and play like they have against Newcastle and Arsenal. If they do that, the result takes care of itself. At 1.70, you're not getting rich, but the value relative to the context is real. Crystal Palace at 5.60 only makes sense if you think a fatigued, rotated visiting side somehow conjures an away win in the league they've managed just seven times all season.
Odds: 1.70 โ Codere (IT)
Bournemouth are in form at home with a potent attack and a settled squad, while Crystal Palace arrive on 48 hours rest from a Conference League semi-final with Ismaila Sarr unavailable. The away record and rotation worries make this a tough ask for Glasner's side, and Iraola knows how to set up and win a game like this.