LIV Golf
Hatton Seizes Control at Halfway
Tyrrell Hatton has sprinted clear at Real Club Valderrama after Round 1, carding a tidy 67 to sit six under par. Thomas Detry trails by two shots at four under, with a congested chasing pack at three under featuring Sergio Garcia, Talor Gooch, Cameron Smith and Scott Vincent. This is shaping up as a genuine dogfight over the final 36 holes on one of Europe’s most demanding layouts.
Our Pre-Tournament Pick
Jon Rahm made a dent in his first round, posting 73 and sitting at two under, level with a handful of others. That puts him tied for tenth, four shots adrift of Hatton. The defending local knowledge didn’t fire in Round 1, but Rahm is still very much in the contest at a course where history and experience matter. He’s priced at a decent 28/1 on the exchange, and with 54 holes to play, there’s plenty of runway left.
Who’s in Contention
Hatton’s two-shot lead is commanding but not insurmountable. He’s available at 2.25/1, the clear favourite, and the gap suggests there’s genuine jeopardy in his position if the putter turns cold over the back nine holes.
Detry at four under looks the most dangerous challenger. The Belgian is playing controlled golf and sits just two back, with odds of 6.5/1 reflecting a genuine tournament-winning chance from here.
Garcia, Gooch, Smith and Vincent all occupy three under, bunched tightly enough that any of them could surge into contention with a hot Round 2. Gooch looks particularly live at 11/1, given his recent form-line into this event.
Grace and Oosthuizen linger at two under, six shots back, but not out of it given Valderrama’s demanding nature. A low round is possible; so is a collapse.
Round 2 Betting Angles
Hatton has done the heavy lifting in Round 1, but leading into a par-71 track this early is a mixed blessing. Watch for any rustiness creeping in. At 2.25/1, the odds don’t offer enough value given the number of threats closing in behind.
Detry’s steady accumulation of scores keeps him in prime position. The chasing pack at three under is so compressed that aggressive play could backfire just as easily as it could pay off. Back Detry to pick off Hatton methodically rather than blow past him.
Rahm is the value play now. Four shots back with full control of his own destiny, and Valderrama is a course where course management trumps raw distance. If he tightens up his game after a loose first round, a 65 or 66 puts him firmly in the mix. At current odds, there’s substantial appeal.
Our Updated Pick
Odds: 28/1 – bet365
Four shots back after a rusty Round 1, but Rahm has two full rounds to unwind at a course that suits his controlled approach. Valderrama rewards precision over power, and with a field as competitive as this, a two-round score of 66-67 catapults him straight into contention. Value play from the back of the front-runners.
Top 5 After Round 1
| Pos | Player | R1 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrrell Hatton | 67 | -6 |
| 2 | Thomas Detry | 68 | -4 |
| 3 | Sergio Garcia | 69 | -3 |
| 4 | Talor Gooch | 72 | -3 |
| 5 | Cameron Smith | 69 | -3 |
Like This? Get More Picks Free
Weekly free bets, odds picks and betting guides โ straight to your inbox.