Royal Ascot Day One: Tuesday Tips

Royal Ascot Day One: Tuesday Tips

Royal Ascot opens on a cloudy Tuesday with the ground sitting at Good To Firm, which suits the speedier types and should produce proper championship racing. Three Group Ones across the card give punters genuine targets, and there are angles worth pressing at various prices. Harry Eustace’s 20% strike rate at this course is a number worth keeping in your back pocket all week.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1, 1m)

This is Notable Speech’s race to lose. Five Group One wins, a dominant Lockinge display where he scythed clear in the manner of a top-class miler, and fast ground that plays right into his hands. William Buick takes the ride and stall one is no impediment over a mile at this track. The 7/4 is short but it reflects reality. He is the world’s number-one miler and everything sets up right.

The more interesting angle for the place market is Docklands at 8/1 (Betfred). Harry Eustace wins at 20% here with an A/E of 1.5, which is a trainer who runs his horses at the right track. Docklands won this race last year, returned a close third in a Group One at Sha Tin 51 days ago, and comes here with first-time headgear. The rating differential is a mild concern, but course specialists in Group Ones have a habit of overperforming the market. Opera Ballo at 7/2 is the main danger to Notable Speech, four wins in five and a Group Two demolition job at Sandown his last time out.

Selection: Notable Speech at 7/4 (Boyle Sports / LiveScore Bet)

Each-way interest: Docklands Each-Way at 8/1 (Betfred), 3 places at 1/5 odds

3:40 King Charles III Stakes (Group 1, 5f, 26 runners)

Twenty-six runners over five furlongs is a cavalry charge where draw, pace and form collide. In a field this big, the each-way market becomes your friend.

Night Raider Each-Way at 7/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred) is the standout selection. Karl Burke has his string firing, 7 wins from 46 runners in the last 14 days, and James Doyle gets the ride. Night Raider arrives on the back of back-to-back wins, the latest a career-best Temple Stakes Group Two victory at Haydock just 24 days ago. The trip and going are exactly what he wants. The front-running style is a risk in a 26-runner sprint, but horses arriving in this kind of form at this track can dictate their own terms. At 7/1 with four places on offer, this is a proper each-way play.

American Affair Each-Way at 8/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred) deserves strong respect. He won this exact race last year, came back from a break to run second in a Group Two on his return, and Jim Goldie is having a fine spell with 9 winners from 45 runners. The wide draw from stall 18 is a genuine concern, but defending champions in sprints regularly hit the frame at big-field meetings. He knows this track, he knows this trip, and the 8/1 looks fair each-way.

Selection: Night Raider each-way at 7/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred)

4:20 St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1, 1m, 3yo Colts)

Six runners, three of them live. Bow Echo is the deserved favourite after that 2000 Guineas demolition, travelling like a dream and quickening clear by three lengths. At 8/11 he is skinny but hard to oppose in a small field on fast ground over a mile, the exact conditions that suit him.

The value call is Talk Of New York at 5/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred). Three wins in his last four starts, culminating in a 5.5-length Listed win at Sandown that had the clock looking very respectable, and the step up to a mile looks tailored to his profile. Charlie Appleby’s 14-day Ascot stats are modest at 16% here, but the horse’s own trajectory is the bigger story. The first-time headgear is a small unknown, though Appleby tends to use it as a sharpener rather than a sign of problems. At 5/1 in a six-runner Group One where the second and third favourites are Gstaad and Puerto Rico, you are getting fair money on a horse with every right to be in the frame.

Gstaad at 11/4 (Boyle Sports) also merits respect. The Irish 2000 Guineas win was decisive and Ryan Moore from stall one is a powerful combination. But reversing Newmarket form with Bow Echo is a big ask.

Selection: Talk Of New York at 5/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred)

Today’s NAP

Notable Speech — Queen Anne Stakes (2:30, Ascot)
Odds: 7/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 15/8 Betfred, 7/4 LiveScore Bet)

Five Group One wins and a Lockinge performance that left rivals standing. Good to Firm is the ground he relishes, William Buick knows how to get a tune out of him, and there is nobody in this nine-runner field who has done anything remotely comparable at a mile this season. The price is what it is for the world’s best miler on his best track conditions. Back him to win and put your each-way money on Docklands at 8/1 on the side.