Royal Ascot Day Three: Friday Tips

Royal Ascot Day Three: Friday Tips

Good to firm ground at Ascot under cloudy skies, and we have three races worth focusing on from the seven on the card. Friday’s programme is headlined by a pair of Group 1s before the King Edward VII Stakes closes the feature action. Aidan O’Brien’s yard continues to fire at a solid clip and Ryan Moore has the pick of two powerful stables. Here is where the value sits.

3:05 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1, 6f)

Twenty-two runners over six furlongs on quick ground is as competitive as sprinting gets at this level, and the place market is wide open. My selection is Charles Darwin Each-Way at 10/1 with Boyle Sports.

The form book is compelling. Four wins from his last five starts speak to a horse who is consistent and progressive, and he handles today’s trip and conditions without any reservation. Connections have added blinkers for the first time, which in an O’Brien context at this stage of the season usually means the yard expects a sharper performance than the one that raised doubts. That flat reappearance now looks like a prep run, and the step into a first-time headgear at a track like Ascot, with Wayne Lordan in the saddle, is worth taking seriously.

The nine-length defeat from earlier is the price you pay for taking a view, but O’Brien fields three in this race and Charles Darwin’s win record sets him apart from Brussels and Albert Einstein in terms of converting ability into results. At 10/1 in a four-place market at 1/5 odds, the each-way terms are generous enough to justify a split stake.

Coppull at 10/1 with Betfred also demands respect. A neck winner of the Commonwealth Cup Trial on this very course last time out, Clive Cox’s colt has done everything asked of him at Ascot and handles this ground perfectly. The 49-day absence is the one flag, but a horse who was placed in the Middle Park and has already won over course and distance is not going away quietly.

4:20 Coronation Stakes (Group 1, 1m, Fillies)

Precise is the 4/7 favourite with both Boyle Sports and Betfred, and for once the market has it right. Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien, Irish 1,000 Guineas winner, 2.5-length clearance at the Curragh, bypassed the Oaks to come here. The word “confident” does not cover it.

The angle against the chalk, if you want one, is the nine-runner field. With only three places paid at 1/5 odds, the each-way proposition on Precise at 4/7 is effectively a win bet. Take the win price and move on.

The each-way play in this race is Touleen Each-Way at 9/1 with Boyle Sports or Betfred. Owen Burrows is posting a 17% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.21, which means his runners here are returning profit above expectation. Touleen was beaten only 4.5 lengths in a Group 1 Guineas, brings proper Group-race form, and the mile on good to firm suits. Saffie Osborne knows the yard well. The slight concern is the 47-day break prior to a sixth last time, but with Burrows firing and the track stats backing him up, 9/1 for a place is where the value in this race lives.

Balantina at 16/1 is worth a note. A Breeders’ Cup Grade 1 winner who handled the step up to a mile with authority, the 231-day absence is a real concern, but if connections have her spot on, she could blow this wide open at a massive price.

5:35 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2, 1m4f, Colts)

Six runners, and on paper this comes down to two horses. Water To Wine at 11/10 with Boyle Sports is the clear market leader after back-to-back wins, including a dominant eleven-length success last time. John and Thady Gosden have been firing with a 7/47 recent record, William Buick takes the ride, and the step up to a mile and four furlongs looks made for a horse who wins by that kind of margin. The price is short, but when a horse looks like the class act in a six-runner Group 2, sometimes you just take the price.

However, the each-way play is Causeway at 13/8 with Boyle Sports or Betfred. Four wins from his last five starts, the most recent a battling Group 3 at the Curragh, and the step up to twelve furlongs looks like a natural progression for what is clearly a staying type. Ryan Moore takes the mount, O’Brien’s yard is running at a solid clip, and the first-time hood is no negative in this context. If Water To Wine disappoints or finds the step up in trip too demanding on the day, Causeway is the one most likely to capitalise. At 13/8, the two-place terms at 1/4 odds mean a placed run still pays.

Ancient Egypt at 9/1 has Derby form at the top level and three wins from his last five starts. The return to quick ground is explicitly flagged as a positive, and at that price in a field of six, there is an argument for a small each-way interest.

Today’s NAP

Precise — Coronation Stakes (4:20, Ascot)
Odds: 4/7 — Boyle Sports (others: 4/7 Betfred, 4/7 LiveScore Bet)

Irish 1,000 Guineas winner by two and a half lengths, bypassed the Oaks so connections could bring her here, Ryan Moore in the saddle, and a nine-runner Group 1 on good to firm Ascot ground over a mile. Precise has done everything asked of her this season and steps forward with every start. The price is short, but this is the banker of the card and deserves to be treated as such.