Royal Ascot Day Five: Saturday Tips and Best Bets

Royal Ascot Day Five: Saturday Tips and Best Bets

Good to firm ground and cloudy skies greet the final day of Royal Ascot 2026. The going suits speed horses and those with a high cruising rate, and on a day where the feature races carry Group 1 and Group 2 status, there is serious prize money on the line. Three races stand out as worthy of punter attention: the Norfolk Stakes, the Hardwicke, and the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. Here is where the value lies.

2:30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2, 5f, Good To Firm)

Twenty-one runners in a juvenile Group 2 is carnage, and stall draws start to matter. The favourite here is Carry The Flag (Ryan Moore, A P O’Brien), who arrives off the back of a Group 3 second at The Curragh, beaten just over a length in stronger company than this. O’Brien’s yard is in relentless form at 9 from 37 over the past two weeks, Moore is aboard, and this colt was striking early during that last run. He sets the standard at 11/4.

The each-way angle at a bigger price, though, is Force Noir Each-Way. Kevin Philippart De Foy has this horse fitted with blinkers for the first time after a 54-day break, and when he won at Naas he put the race to bed quickly, striding clear by four-and-a-quarter lengths on ground similar to today. Stall 19 is not ideal in a 21-runner field, but five furlongs at Ascot loads up quickly and prominent-racing types can come wide and make their own running. At 9/1 with Boyle Sports, the each-way return over four places at 1/5 the odds makes this very workable.

Flight Signal is interesting on his Bath debut performance, but one run against weak opposition is a leap of faith at this level. Carry The Flag is the bet for the win, Force Noir is the each-way play.

Selection: Carry The Flag (win) at 11/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)
Each-Way: Force Noir at 9/1 (Boyle Sports)

3:05 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2, 1m4f, Good To Firm)

The Hardwicke splits into two camps: those heading here in peak form and those with questions to answer. Goliath and Jan Brueghel dominate the market at 9/2, and for good reason.

Goliath (Christophe Soumillon, F-H Graffard) is the selection. Trainer Graffard has a positive A/E of 1.19 at Ascot from 44 runners, one of only two trainers in today’s data whose Ascot record beats expectation. That is not coincidence, it reflects horses prepared specifically for these conditions. Goliath is a twice Group 1 winner, ran 1-2-3 in his last three starts, and won a Group 2 twenty days ago in comfortable fashion. He has course form, handles good to firm, and Soumillon has the race in his hands from the front or just off it. The 9/2 is fair but not generous for a horse this solid.

Jan Brueghel commands respect as a St Leger winner with Ryan Moore and the powerhouse O’Brien operation behind him, but Epsom on testing ground clearly found him out last time. Today’s faster surface is in his favour, and this is a tighter trip. He could reverse that form. The worry is a 14-day turnaround from a race where he was stretched.

Best Secret at 8/1 is an interesting French raider who has won three of his last five, but the class jump into Group 2 on a galloping track is a proper test. Worth noting as a saver rather than a main bet.

Selection: Goliath at 9/2 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

3:40 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1, 6f, Good To Firm)

Nineteen sprinters, £567,100 in prize money, and a good to firm surface that brings the speediest horses to the fore. This is the day’s marquee race and the market is wide open.

Lake Forest (Cieren Fallon, William Haggas) is the standout at 10/1. Haggas has fired in 9 winners from 41 runners in the past 14 days, one of the sharpest trainer stats in today’s card. Lake Forest demolished his rivals at Haydock last time out, winning by five-and-a-half lengths in a Listed race, and he handles a fast surface and six furlongs with ease. The concern is that 42-day break and stepping up from Listed to Group 1 company, but Haggas does not run horses like this at Royal Ascot without believing they are ready. At 10/1, there is genuine value.

Khaadem’s two previous wins in this very race are impossible to ignore. He did disappoint at Haydock on easier ground, but the key word there is easier ground. Today’s good to firm is exactly what Charles Hills’ gelding needs, and if he has come right he is proven to win at the highest level over this trip in this race. At 66/1 he is a speculative each-way dart rather than a serious investment given his age and that Haydock run, but if the conditions unlock him, do not be shocked.

Kind Of Blue (William Buick, Fanshawe) is solid handicap-like value in the frame at 14/1, consistent and proven at trip, though wins have dried up lately.

Selection: Lake Forest Each-Way at 10/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

Today’s NAP

Goliath — Hardwicke Stakes (3:05, Ascot)
Odds: 9/2 — Boyle Sports (others: 9/2 Betfred, 5/1 LiveScore Bet)

Goliath is the most clear-cut selection on the card. Trainer Graffard returns an above-expectation A/E of 1.19 at Ascot across 44 runners, he has won a Group 2 in the past three weeks, and his form line of 1-2-3 in his last three starts tells you this horse is at his peak. Twice Group 1 quality, course form confirmed, and good to firm is no problem. LiveScore Bet’s 5/1 is the price to take.