Ascot, Saturday 25 July 2026: King George Day Tips

Ascot, Saturday 25 July 2026: King George Day Tips

The summer’s most prestigious flat card lands at Ascot with Good To Firm ground underfoot, three pattern races on the bill, and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes as the centrepiece. F-H Graffard arrives with serious ammunition and a yard running at a 16% strike rate at this course, A/E of 1.15. That’s a trainer worth following blind at Ascot, and today he has two bullets loaded in the biggest race of the day. With Glorious Goodwood just three days away, trainers are peaking their horses right now, and the form book is as live as it gets.

1:45 — Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes (Group 3, 6f, Good To Firm)

Selection: Dark Issue (11/4, Boyle Sports)

Richard Hannon’s yard has been turning horses over at a productive clip across the last fortnight, 7 winners from 56 runners, and Dark Issue brings a form line of 1-4 that reads better than the bare numbers suggest. A winner on debut, she was beaten by a narrow margin last time in what looks a strong piece of form. Pat Dobbs knows this horse, and Hannon two-year-old fillies on fast summer ground at Ascot are a recurring source of value.

Alta Regina at 3/1 is the market leader off a 1-6 form line but that sixth-place finish is a concern stepping up into Group 3 company. Glorious Game has won both starts (11-11) and Hugo Palmer’s yard is ticking over, but 16/1 reflects the size of the task against battle-hardened rivals. Miss Kodi, unbeaten in one start for Clive Cox (4 from 28 runners in the last fortnight, a solid yard), appeals each-way at 15/2 but Dark Issue has the combination of stable form and relevant experience to take this.

2:20 — Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3, 1m, Good To Firm)

Selection: Skydance Each-Way (8/1, Boyle Sports)

Touleen is odds-on and probably deserves to be, but Owen Burrows’ filly put up a moderate effort last time (form reads 15-262) and short-priced horses in Group company need their A-game. At 8/11, the juice simply isn’t there for the win, and any wobble finds you with nothing.

Skydance represents the value play. W McCreery’s filly comes here off the back of a win (form 3265-1) and that recent course confidence on Good To Firm ground is the key angle. At 8/1, Oisin Murphy takes the ride, and you’re getting an in-form filly against a short-priced favourite who hasn’t always delivered when it matters. Three places are paid at 1/5 odds in an eight-runner field. Kon Tiki at 4/1 with Ryan Moore is a legitimate each-way alternative, but Skydance at double the price offers the superior return if she runs to her recent best.

Pina Sonata (12/1) for James Fanshawe is worth a note too, a yard running at a hot 4 from 17 in the last 14 days, and that 107 in the form reads as a win last time out. But the step up in class gives pause.

3:35 — King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 1m4f, Good To Firm)

Selection: Calandagan (13/8, Boyle Sports)

This is the one. F-H Graffard runs two here, Calandagan and Goliath, and his Ascot record (16% wins, A/E 1.15) tells you this is a handler who travels to the track and delivers. Graffard’s last 14 days show 13 winners from 37 runners. That’s a yard in full flow, and he’s brought the right horses.

Calandagan’s form reads 11-141. Three wins from five starts, the only defeats coming in select company. The five-year-old gelding has Mickael Barzalona in the saddle, a jockey who knows this horse intimately and who rides Group 1 races at Ascot with conviction. The mile and a quarter to mile and a half trip on Good To Firm ground suits a horse with his profile.

Masquerade Ball at 7/2 is the danger. The Japanese raider has placed second in five of his last six starts (form 3212-2), which screams “always the bridesmaid.” Takahisa Tezuka has no recent runners in the data, so there’s no yard-form context to work with, and at 7/2, you’re paying a premium for a horse who finishes second consistently.

Minnie Hauk at 11/2 for Aidan O’Brien deserves respect at that price, but the stable is running cold (4 from 44 in the last fortnight) and that’s simply not a yard firing right now. Kalpana (11/1, Andrew Balding) is interesting given Balding’s recent form (13 from 54), but a mare dropping into Group 1 company against this field needs to be at her very best.

Goliath at 10/1 is the each-way alternative in the same Graffard yard. Form 03-213 includes some good placed efforts and Christophe Soumillon doesn’t take rides in the King George unless he fancies his chances.

Today’s NAP

Calandagan — King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3:35, Ascot)
Odds: 13/8 — Boyle Sports (others: 13/8 LiveScore Bet)

F-H Graffard is operating at 16% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E above 1.15, a trainer who consistently outperforms expectations at this track. His yard has produced 13 winners from 37 runners in the last fortnight, which is emphatically a stable in form. Calandagan brings a three-from-five win record, has Barzalona aboard who knows every stride of this horse, and the Good To Firm ground at Ascot over a mile and a half sets up perfectly for his profile. At 13/8, this is not a skinny favourite blindly followed. This is a horse, a trainer, and a jockey combining at the peak of a hot summer run. Back him to win.