Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Betting Tips 2026

End-of-Season Drift vs European Hangover

Athletic Bilbao’s 2025/26 campaign has quietly unravelled. Ernesto Valverde’s side sit ninth with a goal difference of -13, which is a damning number for a club that usually grinds out results at San Mamés. Three defeats in their last four league games, including a 0-2 loss at Espanyol and a 0-1 home defeat to Valencia, suggest the wheels have come off in the final stretch. Their away record tells the full story: four wins, three draws, eleven defeats on the road.

Celta Vigo arrive in better shape overall. Sixth place, 50 points, and an away record that reads eight wins and six draws from their travels this season. They beat Atlético Madrid 1-0 away from home recently, which is not the kind of result you pick up by accident. Yes, they lost at home to Levante last time out, but the broader picture is of a side that has genuinely performed this season.

Injury Concerns and Team News

Bilbao have real problems heading into Sunday. Oihan Sancet, Unai Gomez and Unai Eguíluz are all set to miss the fixture. Sancet has chipped in with four goals from midfield this season and his absence hurts the creative balance in the middle of the pitch. Then there’s Nico Williams, who left their last match with an injury. Reports suggest he may be fit for Spain’s World Cup squad, but his availability here is genuinely in doubt. Losing Williams from the front line is significant. He has six goals and three assists in 25 appearances this season, and he’s one of the few Athletic players capable of creating something out of nothing.

Celta are without Franco Cervi, Williot Swedberg and Pablo Duran. Swedberg’s absence is the one that stings most. The Swede has four goals and five assists in 27 appearances this season, making him one of Celta’s most productive outlets. Still, Borja Iglesias has 14 goals in 33 league appearances and Ferran Jutglà has added nine more. That’s a front line with genuine firepower even without Swedberg in the mix.

Head-to-Head and the Betting Angle

The recent head-to-head record leans Celta’s way in the most recent meeting. They won 2-0 at home back in December 2025, and before that Athletic edged a 2-1 win at Celta in January 2025. These fixtures tend to be close and occasionally chaotic, with the 4-3 in November 2023 proving the point, but Celta have shown more composure in the current campaign.

The league table backs Celta here. They are six points clear of Bilbao with a positive goal difference compared to Athletic’s -13. Add in Bilbao’s mounting injury list and a home record that reads nine wins but seven losses, and San Mamés is not the fortress it used to be. Athletic have shipped eight goals across their last five matches. Celta’s attack, even at reduced capacity, should fancy this.

The 3.8 on Celta to win stands out as the value play. Bookmakers are pricing Athletic as favourites at 2.26 on the basis of home advantage, but that advantage is clearly eroded this season. Celta’s away form is genuinely excellent, they have more firepower available despite the Swedberg absence, and Bilbao are finishing the season in poor nick without several key players.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 is also worth a look given both sides are missing attacking contributors, but the main angle is Celta winning this game outright. The price is there. The form supports it.