Atletico Madrid 
Athletic Bilbao Simeone's Side in Freefall at the Worst Time
Atletico Madrid arrive at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday night in genuinely poor form. Five matches across all competitions, three defeats, and a Copa del Rey Final draw with Real Sociedad that went to extra time. Diego Simeone's side have shipped nine goals in their last five games, conceding twice to Elche and Sevilla in La Liga, and exiting the Champions League quarter-finals after losing 2-1 to Barcelona at home. The 2-0 win over Barcelona in the first leg feels like a long time ago now.
They're fourth in La Liga with 57 points, and the home record looks solid on paper: W13, D1, L2 at the Metropolitano this season. But there's a flatness to this squad right now. The energy that carried them through that Barcelona first leg has evaporated, and a weekend domestic fixture against an unfancied Bilbao side is exactly the kind of game Atletico have sleepwalked through before.
Alexander Sørloth leads their scoring with 10 goals in 30 appearances this season, Julian Álvarez has chipped in with 8, and Griezmann is still doing Griezmann things with 6 goals from 27. But Tomás Almada is out, which matters, because he provides a creative link that isn't always replicated elsewhere in the system.
Athletic Bilbao's Form is Patchy, but They Travel Light
Ernesto Valverde's side have won just one of their last five matches, and that 1-0 home win over Osasuna is the one bright spot. They were beaten at Getafe, lost at home to Villarreal, and got thumped 3-0 at Girona before that. Their away form this season tells the real story: W3, D3, L9. They do not travel well.
Gorka Guruzeta leads their attack with 8 goals in 29 appearances, and Nico Williams has 4 goals in 22 games. Oihan Sancet, who offers plenty in the midfield-to-attack transition with 3 goals from 25 appearances, is out for this one, which is a meaningful absence. Unai Gomez and Unai Eguíluz are also missing. That's real squad depth stripped away from a side already sitting ninth with a goal difference of -11.
Bilbao are not here to threaten a Champions League place. This is a mid-table side with injury problems travelling to one of the tougher grounds in Spain. Context matters.
Head-to-Head: Tight Series, But Atletico Have the Edge at Home
The last five meetings between these sides have been tight. Atletico won 1-0 at the Metropolitano in March 2025, and won 1-0 at San Mamés back in August 2024. Bilbao did beat Atletico 1-0 at San Mamés in December 2025, but that was on their own patch. The most relevant result here is the home fixture from this fixture's equivalent last season: Atletico 1-0 Athletic Club. Low scoring, controlled. Before that, Atletico put three past them at home in April 2024.
Head-to-head meetings between these sides are typically close affairs, but Atletico at home in La Liga have a consistently better record in this fixture. Bilbao have one Copa del Rey victory over Atletico in the recent history, a 3-0 win from February 2024, but cup football is a different animal.
The Betting Angle
Atletico's form is poor and they're clearly carrying some emotional and physical fatigue after a Copa final draw and Champions League exit in the same week. José María Giménez is out at the back, Baena is missing, and Almada is unavailable. That's three players Simeone would want available.
But Bilbao away from San Mamés this season have been dreadful: three wins from fifteen away games. They're missing Sancet as their main creative outlet through the middle. And Atletico, despite their slump, are still a side with Sørloth, Álvarez, and Griezmann capable of manufacturing something at the Metropolitano.
The 2.39 on Atletico to win is probably fair given recent form, but this looks like a situation where the home side's quality and ground advantage outweighs a temporary dip. Bilbao simply do not have the away record or the squad depth right now to go and nick this.
The goals market is interesting too: Over 2.5 at 1.96 has some appeal given both sides have shown defensive frailty recently, but the tight H2H history gives me pause. The match result is the cleaner angle.
Odds: 2.39 — Winamax (DE)
Atletico's form has been poor, but Bilbao away from home this season is a disaster: three wins in fifteen on the road, now without Sancet pulling strings in midfield. Simeone's side have the home record, the individual quality up front, and a point to prove after a bruising week. Back them to take care of business.