Atletico Madrid vs Girona Betting Tips 2026

Simeone’s Side Have Unfinished Business

Atletico Madrid’s season has been a strange one. They knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League semi-finals on away goals after a 1-1 draw at the Metropolitano and a 0-1 defeat at the Emirates, went deep in the Copa del Rey and drew 2-2 with Real Sociedad in the final, and yet sit fourth in La Liga with two games left. This Sunday against Girona isn’t dead rubber territory for them. A Champions League place was already secured some time ago, but Diego Simeone will want to close the season with a win in front of their own supporters, and the incentive to push for a higher finish is very much alive.

Girona, meanwhile, are in survival mode. Fifteenth in the table, 40 points, goal difference of minus 15. They drew 1-1 at home to Real Sociedad in their last outing, and that came just two days before this fixture. Tired legs travelling to the Estadio Cívitas Metropolitano is not a recipe for anything but suffering. Michel’s squad have lost three of their last five and conceded eight goals across those games.

Injury News

Atletico are missing José Giménez, Álex Baena and Tomás Almada, which is not ideal in terms of depth, but Simeone still has more than enough quality to dominate this fixture. Alexander Sørloth has 13 goals in the league this season, Julian Álvarez has eight and Griezmann seven, so the attacking options are plentiful even with a few absentees.

Girona’s situation is more damaging. Viktor Tsygankov, their second top scorer with six goals and five assists from 30 appearances, misses this one. Abel Ruiz is also out, as is goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga. Losing your starting keeper and a key creative threat for a trip to fourth-placed Atletico, two days after playing 90 minutes, is about as rough a set of circumstances as you can face.

Head-to-Head

The recent history here is brutally one-sided. Atletico put three past Girona at home earlier this season. The reverse fixture in December? Girona 0-3 Atletico. Go back to last season and Atletico won 3-0 at home and 3-1 at home again. The one outlier in the last five meetings was a Girona 4-3 win back in January 2024, which looks increasingly like an anomaly. Atletico have scored three or more in four of the last five head-to-heads, and Girona’s defensive record this term makes it hard to bet against more of the same.

The Betting Angle

The home win at 1.83 is where the value sits. Atletico are 14-1-3 at home this season. Their record on their own turf is exceptional, and Girona are coming in fatigued, short-handed in goal and without Tsygankov. The Champions League exit to Arsenal will sting, but Simeone teams typically respond by grinding results rather than going to pieces, and the crowd at the Metropolitano will be behind them.

Girona have taken just three wins away from home all season, and none of those will have come against opposition of Atletico’s quality. Their attacking threat is reduced without Tsygankov, and a depleted backline behind a stand-in keeper makes a low-block defensive performance look unlikely to hold.

At 1.83 Atletico to win is a solid price given everything stacked against Girona heading into Sunday evening.