Ayr, Friday 17 April: Soft Ground, Sharp Angles

Ayr, Friday 17 April: Soft Ground, Sharp Angles

Ayr on soft ground in mid-April is a serious test of stamina and jumping. The going suits grinders over flashy types, and on a seven-race card dominated by handicaps, there are angles worth pressing. Three races stand out as tipworthy: the feature Hillhouse Quarry Chase, the Coral Handicap Hurdle, and the opener over two miles. Let's get into it.

1:45 — Slater Menswear Handicap Hurdle (2m, Soft)

Selection: Bibe Mus Each-Way at 7/1 (Bet365)

Paul Nicholls at 7/38 in the last fortnight is not a yard in scintillating form, but Bibe Mus has a profile that stands out in this 15-runner field. The four-year-old won with authority on his stable debut at Sandown on soft ground, and Harry Cobden takes the ride again. His Fred Winter run under a penalty was better than the bare result suggests, and crucially, this is his handicap mark rather than a penalty assignment. The soft going at Ayr is no concern whatsoever: his Sandown win came on soft, and his French Flat background suggests he handles cut.

The market is focusing hard on Secret Force, but the Gavin Cromwell runner arrives with the Grade 2 and Listed form looking a bit flat. Magna Victor at 5/1 is respected as a proven handicapper, but his two wins came on good to soft at Musselburgh over 1m7f, and an 8lb rise into a much deeper race on soft feels like a stretch. Bibe Mus at 7/1 looks the value play in a race where youth and a quality trainer should count for something.

• Bibe Mus — 7/1 Bet365 / 6/1 William Hill (each-way, 4 places at 1/5 odds)
• Each-way cover: Castle Ivers (trainer spoke well, soft form there) at 11/2

3:30 — Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (2m4½f, Soft)

Selection: Donnacha at 11/4 (Midnite)

This is the standout race of the card. Nine runners, soft ground, a proper staying test at 2m4½f, and a race where the form reads well enough to take a confident view.

Donnacha is the call. Trained by Nigel Hawke, he arrives off back-to-back placed efforts before landing a quality handicap at Cheltenham in January on soft ground over 2m4f. The key detail in that win: he pulled clear with Jagwar, who subsequently ran a big race as Ultima runner-up at the Festival. That is proper collateral form. A 5lb rise for a career-best effort on the exact same trip and going combination is not a punishing assessment. James Davies keeps the ride.

Hoe Joly Smoke is the market leader and Dan Skelton's record in this race is remarkable: five wins from the last eight runnings. That stat deserves respect. But the horse's recent form reads P-3356, and while wind surgery may unlock something, backing a horse who hasn't convinced in his last four is asking a lot at the price. If he runs up to his best, he'll be involved, but Donnacha has shown us the form on the right terms.

Twinjets at 10/1 is worth a mention. Paul Nicholls sends him up with Jay Tidball claiming 5lb, and the horse won twice in autumn on similar going over this sort of trip. He makes the running and will set this up properly. At 10/1 each-way, he's a genuine place shout.

• Donnacha — 11/4 Midnite / 5/2 Bet365
• Each-way interest: Twinjets Each-Way at 10/1 (Bet365 / William Hill, 3 places at 1/5 odds)

4:05 — Coral Handicap Hurdle (2m5½f, Soft)

Selection: Sanilam Each-Way at 8/1 (Bet365 / Midnite)

A 14-runner handicap hurdle at 2m5½f on soft ground, and Sandy Thomson's Sanilam is the pick at 8/1. This horse won a maiden hurdle at Ayr on soft in January: he knows the track, he handles the going, and he's been progressive since. Two wins on the bounce including a handicap debut at Musselburgh on good to soft last time out, and a 5lb rise brings him to a mark that still looks workable given the upward trajectory.

Thomson's yard is in solid form at 2 from 8 in the last 14 days, Conor O'Farrell continues to ride this horse well, and the combination of course form and progressive profile makes 8/1 look too big. The fact he won his maiden here on soft makes the going switch entirely comfortable.

Came From Nowhere at 3/1 is fair enough, and the Jeremy Scott runner is clearly talented, but that yard is 0/12 in the last fortnight. A final-flight blunder at Newbury doesn't inspire confidence over a longer trip at a more galloping track. The Four Sixes is fascinating at 9/1 having won this race last year when 5lb higher, but his form since that Kelso novice chase win in December has been poor. Sanilam at 8/1 each-way represents the value.

• Sanilam — 8/1 Bet365 / 8/1 Midnite (each-way, 4 places at 1/5 odds)
• Watch the market on: Saracen Beau (Nicky Richards in hot form at 7/10 last 14 days)

Today's NAP