Ayr Saturday: Scottish National Day Tips

Ayr Saturday: Scottish National Day Tips

Ayr delivers its biggest day of the jumps season with the Scottish Grand National headlining a card that also features the Scottish Champion Hurdle and a competitive handicap chase to open proceedings. The going is soft across the board, which will suit certain profiles and expose others. Paul Nicholls is hitting a reasonable rate of 8/38 over the last 14 days and saddles runners across all three featured races, so the Ditcheat yard is worth tracking throughout. Dan Skelton's 12/59 is similarly solid. With Callum Smith fighting in Liverpool tonight, Scotland is getting its own Saturday spectacle right here at Ayr.

1:10 — Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (2m½f, Soft)

Nine runners over two and a half miles on soft ground, and the form book points firmly toward one horse who has been frustratingly consistent at a high level without quite winning recently. Sans Bruit, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Harry Cobden, carries an RPR of 166, the highest in the field, and the Nicholls yard is in decent form. The concern is a recent run of 6-6-5-4-4-3, a horse who keeps finding one or two better than him. However, the soft going suits this profile of relentless galloper, the weight is competitive at 142lbs, and Cobden knows how to get the best out of Nicholls's chasers over a trip like this.

The bigger interest, however, is in Traprain Law at 9/2 for Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore. Home track advantage matters at Ayr, Russell is the local handler, and Traprain Law's form of -24213 shows a horse who placed at Grade level and then won last time. The RPR of 164 is right up there, and Patrick Wadge gets the ride. On soft Ayr ground, with the local yard, this is the one to be on.

Selection: Traprain Law at 9/2 (Bet365, Betfred)

2:20 — Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m, Soft)

A Grade 2 over two miles on soft ground, and this shapes up as a genuine contest between a horse who keeps winning and a market leader who needs to bounce back. Captain Hugo Each-Way, trained by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White and ridden by Sean Houlihan, is available at 11/2 with PricedUp Bet and 5/1 with Bet365. The form reads 1121F1, which tells you everything: five wins from his last six completed runs, the fall being the one blot. An RPR of 154 and TS of 149 are the best combination of raw speed and recent performance in this field. The Hobbs and Johnson White yard is at 2/15 over the last 14 days, which is modest, but the horse's own form demands respect regardless.

The market has Tutti Quanti at 10/3 as the favourite, and Paul Nicholls with Harry Cobden is always a serious combination. An RPR of 157 and form of 1-6118 shows that recent win, but the 6 and the 8 before it suggest inconsistency. At 10/3 that inconsistency is not properly priced in. Tellherthename at 7/2 for Dan Skelton has a fair RPR of 156, but form of 4P5-30 is poor reading for a Grade 2.

Queenie St Clair deserves a mention at 16/1. Nick Scholfield's mare has form of 613151, which is relentlessly consistent, and the RPR of 147 is below the top horses but not without scope. Sean Bowen rides and the each-way terms at 3 places mean she is live for a place at a big price.

Selection: Captain Hugo at 11/2 (PricedUp Bet), each-way Each-Way

3:35 — Coral Scottish Grand National (4m, Soft, 21 runners)

Twenty-one runners over four miles of soft Ayr ground, and five places on offer. This is exactly the race to find a priced-up each-way angle, and the data delivers one clearly.

King Of Answers Each-Way, trained by Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore and ridden by Derek Fox, is available at 6/1 with Betfred and 11/2 with Coral. The form is -51412, showing a win and two seconds in recent starts. The RPR of 153 is among the best in a wide-open field, and the crucial factor here is the same as in the earlier race: Lucinda Russell trains for Ayr. She knows this track, her horses run well here, and Derek Fox has a superb record in staying handicap chases in Scotland. At 6/1 in a 21-runner field with five places paid, this is outstanding each-way value.

Isaac Des Obeaux at 10/1 for Paul Nicholls also merits inclusion. Form of 3-3121 is a horse in winning form, Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride, and the Nicholls yard at 8/38 has been hitting a decent clip. At four miles on soft, stamina is everything, and this profile fits. Worth an each-way interest at the price.

Ask Brewster at 16/1 is a longer each-way shot worth noting. Form of 11-151 reads like a horse who wins when he gets his conditions, and soft ground over marathon trips appears to be exactly that.

Selection: King Of Answers at 6/1 (Betfred), each-way Each-Way

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