Ayr, Wednesday 20 May: Tips and Selections

Ayr, Wednesday 20 May: Tips and Selections

A sharp eight-race card at Ayr on good to firm ground, with showers forecast that could just take the edge off the going as the day progresses. Three races stand out for punters looking for value, and there is genuine interest across the card from handicap chasers to a maiden dominated by a single very well-bred juvenile. Trainers firing from their yards right now include Sam England (4/19 last 14 days) and Roger Varian (6/20), and those numbers are worth keeping front of mind.

1:42 — Absolut Tabasco Maiden Stakes (5f, Good To Firm)

Ruler’s Pride (1/3 Boyle Sports, Betfred) is the standout selection and there is no point pretending otherwise. A 550,000gns breeze-up purchase, he is closely related to Campanelle, the Prix Morny and Commonwealth Cup winner. That pedigree is elite for a five-furlong juvenile, and the market has him priced accordingly. Karl Burke sends out two-year-olds to win on debut regularly, and Clifford Lee gets the call.

The danger is Quiet Soul at 4/1, who already has a run under her belt after finishing second at Southwell over this trip. Racecourse experience counts at this level, and Michael Dods’s filly will strip fitter. Still, the class gap in breeding between the pair is stark. At odds-on you simply have to accept the terms or sit this one out. Ruler’s Pride to win, no each-way case at this price.

2:42 — Schweppes Cherry Pepper Handicap (1m1f, Good To Firm, 12 runners)

Pearl Eye (15/8 Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet) is the play here. The six-year-old joined Jim Goldie for just 13,000gns after losing his way under previous connections, and his stable debut at Ayr over a mile recently produced a third-place finish that reads far better than the bare form suggests. Goldie has been busy (4/37 last 14 days), and this horse is on a dangerously low mark given he was winning at the highest level only 14 months ago. Lauren Young takes the 5lb claim, which tightens the weights further. Ayr suits, the trip suits, and the booking of an apprentice on a horse with ability says the yard is confident.

The main threat is Cisco Disco Each-Way at 15/2 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) or 7/1 (LiveScore Bet). Four wins at this course last year is a striking record, and he clearly loves Ayr. The concerns are the 223-day absence and the fact that those wins came on soft to heavy ground. Today’s good to firm is far from ideal. If the showers arrive and soften the surface through the afternoon, his price lengthens your appeal considerably. Worth a small each-way interest at 7/1.

Footwork at 10/1 Each-Way also deserves a mention. Charlie Johnston’s colt ran well fresh at Kempton in October and steps up to 1m1f for the first time, having previously won on good to firm at Haydock. The extra distance could unlock improvement. Four places at 1/5 make this an attractive each-way proposition in a 12-runner field.

3:42 — Tennent’s Lager Handicap (1m, Good To Firm, 12 runners)

Hale End (4/1 Boyle Sports, Betfred) is the selection. Michael Dods’s gelding has been busy and is in form. He returned from a two-month break to win at Wetherby last month over a mile on good to firm, then went close at Thirsk on Saturday. He is a proven course and distance winner, and he runs off the same mark as he carried four days ago. That is a significant advantage in a 12-runner handicap field where others are returning from breaks or switching back from all-weather.

The worry is the quick turnaround, but this yard has run horses on short breaks before and Dods knows his horse. Connor Beasley, who knows the track well, retains the ride.

Return To Unit at 7/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) will attract a lot of attention and the case is obvious. Roger Varian (6/20 last 14 days, 29% strike rate at Ayr) sends a lightly raced 4yo who won his maiden at Nottingham on his final start last season and has shown consistent improvement. He is unproven over today’s track and conditions, and the price is short enough to be cautious. But if you want the banker in the race, Varian’s record here makes him hard to dismiss.

Jannas Journey Each-Way at 16/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) is the value play. Five wins from seven visits to this track speaks for itself, and Jim Goldie’s mare has been below par this season but returns to a venue where she is essentially a course specialist. At 14/1 with LiveScore Bet, each-way at 1/5 four places looks generous for a horse with that course record.

Today’s NAP