Bath, Wednesday 13 May: Firm Ground, Seven Races, Here Are the Angles

Bath, Wednesday 13 May: Firm Ground, Seven Races, Here Are the Angles

Bath on firm ground in May is exactly the type of card where trainer form and going suitability separate the punters from the guessers. The track’s undulating nature and straight course favour horses that travel well and handle quick conditions. Three races stand out today, and there is a clear NAP in the mix.

5:09 — Visit fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap (Bath Summer Sprint Series Qualifier, 5f, Firm)

Nine runners, three places, and Tony Carroll running three horses. When a trainer of Carroll’s volume sends a treble to a meeting, you pay attention. His yard is bang in form at 7/51 over the last 14 days, which is a strong strike rate for a handler who operates at this level of the game.

The pick here is Wedgewood Each-Way at 11/4 with Boyle Sports and Betfred. She won here over five furlongs last summer, and Bath on firm is exactly her conditions. Her recent form shows a win and a placing in her last three completed starts, and she drops back to the minimum trip today having shaped with plenty of promise over six. Luke Morris takes the ride, and he rides Bath well. At 11/4 she is not a huge price, but the each-way play at 1/5 the odds for three places on a nine-runner field is sound, especially with Carroll firing.

Darkened Edge is the market leader at 5/2 and is not without a case, but Carroll’s operation is in significantly better shape than Christopher Mason’s yard right now. If you want a longer-priced interest, Anglesey Edge at 8/1 with Boyle Sports has a solid RPR for the grade and that form line of 3427-5 is more competitive than it looks at a glance.

5:42 — British EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (5½f, Firm)

Five runners, all two-year-olds, and this is a proper puzzle. No debut runner can be safely dismissed, but the trainer stats tell a clear story.

Richard Hughes has six winners from 35 runners in the last 14 days. That is a yard in excellent nick, and Time Saxon Warrior at 9/4 across the boards is an attractive proposition. Debut two-year-olds trained by Hughes tend to arrive fit and ready, and the yard regularly targets early-season two-year-old maidens on fast ground at tracks like Bath.

The favourite Tribal Appearance at 7/4 has Hollie Doyle booked, which is always a positive, but the Newland and Insole combination is running at just 2/25 over the last fortnight. That is a yard cold in form, and laying that at 7/4 rather than backing Hughes’s runner at 9/4 looks the sharper move. Romeo Guest at 5/2 for Jack Channon, who is ticking along at 3/20, is a reasonable alternative but the Hughes angle is the one worth following.

6:12 — Platinum Motor Group Fillies’ Novice Stakes (1m, Firm)

Six fillies and, honestly, this race has very little complexity about it. Darzah for William Haggas and Hollie Doyle is the standout, and her RPR of 75 is the highest in the field by a meaningful margin. Haggas is operating at 11/43 over the last two weeks, a trainer very much in his summer rhythm, and this filly clearly possesses the class to win a Bath fillies’ novice.

At 8/11 she is not a value tip. The interest for punters who want to be on the race lies with Vitality at 3/1 for Charlie Johnston. An RPR of 69 and form figures of 32 suggest she is knocking on the door. Johnston has seven winners from 46 runners in the past fortnight, so the yard is not cold. If Darzah underperforms on this faster ground than she may have previously encountered, Vitality is the obvious beneficiary. Mobberley Rose at 9/4 won on debut but the Roger Varian filly steps up sharply in trip here and that unknown is the concern.

The race play is Darzah to win if you need to be on it, but the most interesting each-way angle at bigger odds does not exist here given the small field. Pass or take Darzah at 8/11 win only.

Today’s NAP