Borussia Dortmund Dortmund on the Cusp, Freiburg Running on Empty
Signal Iduna Park on Sunday afternoon, and Borussia Dortmund have a job to finish. Sitting second in the Bundesliga on 64 points, Niko Kovač's side are well placed in the title race and need to keep winning at home. Their record at Signal Iduna Park this season tells the story: 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. That's a fortress.
Freiburg travel here having played on Thursday. Not just any Thursday either. Julian Schuster's side lost a DFB-Pokal semi-final 1-2 to VfB Stuttgart two days before this fixture. That's a brutal turnaround, emotionally and physically. Cup exits sting, tired legs don't recover in 48 hours, and the motivation gap between a team chasing Champions League points and one licking their wounds from a semi-final defeat is very real.
Form and Firepower
Dortmund's recent form is a bit mixed, but at home it's been consistently sharp. They beat Hamburger SV 3-2 and FC Augsburg 2-0 in their last two home league games. The two losses in their last five came away from home: a 1-2 defeat at Hoffenheim and a 0-1 loss to Bayer Leverkusen. At Signal Iduna Park, they're a different animal.
The goals are coming from all over the pitch. Serhou Guirassy leads the line with 14 goals in 29 appearances this season. Maximilian Beier has contributed 8 goals and 4 assists in 28 apps, while Karim Adeyemi and Julian Brandt have both chipped in 7 goals apiece. That's genuine depth across the forward line.
Freiburg, for their part, have genuine attacking quality. Ivi Matanović has 8 goals this season, Vicenzo Grifo 7. Their recent run across all competitions looked impressive on paper: wins over Heidenheim and Mainz in the league, plus a strong Europa League quarter-final double-header against Celta Vigo, winning 3-0 and then 3-1. But that European campaign is now over, the cup run is over, and they're 8th in the Bundesliga with a goal difference of -4. Away from home this season they've won just 4 of 15 league games.
Head-to-Head: Dortmund's Dominance is Glaring
Look at the recent history between these two. Dortmund beat Freiburg 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park in November 2024. Before that, a 3-0 win at home in February 2024. Away at Freiburg in April 2025, it was a 1-4. The Schwarzwald-Stadion clash in December 2025 ended 1-1, which is the only time Freiburg have avoided defeat against Dortmund across the last five meetings. Four wins out of five for Dortmund, with an aggregate that flatters neither side when the away draw is the outlier.
This fixture at Signal Iduna Park specifically has produced 4-0 and 3-0 in the last two editions. Freiburg simply do not handle this ground well.
Injuries and Team News
Dortmund are missing Mané, Ostrzinski, and Niklas Süle, though all three absences are listed as unknown in nature. With the depth Kovač has available across the squad, those absences shouldn't derail the starting XI significantly. Freiburg have no confirmed injury concerns, but given the fixture congestion and the midweek cup semi-final exit, Schuster may be forced into rotation regardless, and morale after a cup exit is not a minor footnote.
The Betting Angle
Dortmund at 1.46 to win this at home looks fair to me. You're getting a second-placed team in strong home form, with a dominant head-to-head record in this exact fixture, against a side that played 48 hours ago and just lost a cup semi-final. That combination of factors points clearly in one direction.
The 1-4 over 2.5 goals market is also interesting at 1.53 given both teams' attacking output recently. But the cleaner play is the home win. Freiburg's away record, their fatigue, and Dortmund's need for points all push the same way.
Odds: 1.46 — Winamax (DE)
Dortmund's home record this season is outstanding at 11-2-2, and they've beaten Freiburg 4-0 and 3-0 in their last two meetings at Signal Iduna Park. Freiburg played 48 hours ago, lost a cup semi-final, and have won just 4 away league games all season. The home win is the play here.