Zandschulp vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Italian Betting Tips

Italian Open 2026: Van de Zandschulp vs Kovacevic Betting Preview

The Italian Open gets underway at the Foro Italico in Rome this week, and while the tournament is traditionally one of the premier clay-court events on the ATP calendar, this fixture is listed as a hard court match. That surface detail matters, and it shapes how we read the odds here. Van de Zandschulp is installed as a heavy favourite at 1.26, with Kovacevic a significant underdog at 4.40. The question worth asking before any bet lands: is that price gap justified, or is there value lurking on the American?

Botic van de Zandschulp

The Dutch baseliner is a physically imposing player who brings serious firepower from the back of the court. Van de Zandschulp's game is built around heavy groundstrokes and a willingness to engage in attrition rallies. He is not a natural serve-and-volley merchant, but his groundstroke quality on hard courts is legitimate, and he has the physical frame to hold up over three sets against most opponents at this level.

His biggest asset is consistency under pressure. He is the kind of player who can absorb pace and redirect it with authority, which suits faster surfaces where ball speed is already high. On hard courts, his flat-hitting style can be particularly effective when he is locked in and the conditions allow him to drive through the ball without excessive spin.

At 1.26, the market has made its call. That is a very short price, and backing him outright returns very little unless you are staking volume or adding him to a multi.

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Kovacevic is an American with a game built around athleticism and controlled aggression. He is a solid ball-striker who can hurt opponents when given pace to work with, and his serve is a genuine weapon that can bail him out of trouble on big points. Hard courts suit his style reasonably well. He is comfortable on the surface and capable of constructing points rather than simply bashing from the baseline.

At 4.40, the odds reflect a significant gap in perceived quality between these two players. But Kovacevic is not a pushover. He is a professional operating at ATP level, and on a given day, with his serve firing and his groundstrokes landing cleanly, he can push anyone. The price implies he wins this match roughly one in four times. Whether you believe that is fair or generous determines where the value sits.

Surface and Conditions

Hard court play at the Foro Italico in May is an unusual setting. The Roman conditions tend to be warm and humid this time of year, which can slow the court down slightly even on hard surfaces. Slower hard courts favour baseline players with heavy topspin and physical endurance. That description fits Van de Zandschulp more than it does Kovacevic, whose flatter ball-striking tends to shine on faster, punchier surfaces.

If the court plays slow and the conditions grind rallies out, the advantage shifts further toward the Dutchman. If it is crisp and fast, Kovacevic's serve and flatter groundstrokes become more dangerous and the upset price starts to look more interesting.

Betting Angles

Van de Zandschulp at 1.26 is not a bet we would chase on its own. Anything below 1.30 needs to be close to a certainty to justify the risk versus reward, and no ATP match at this stage of a tournament is a certainty. One loose set, a minor physical complaint, or a hot-serving Kovacevic can derail a short-priced favourite faster than the odds suggest.

Kovacevic at 4.40 is where the genuine interest lies. That is a chunky underdog price for a professional player on a surface that suits his game. You only need him to pull off this kind of result once in every four or five opportunities to show a profit at that price, and his profile suggests he is capable of doing exactly that on a good day.

• Van de Zandschulp to win: 1.26 (low value, too short for a singles bet)
• Kovacevic to win: 4.40 (underdog value worth a small stake)
• Consider: Kovacevic to win a set as an alternative lower-risk angle

Our Pick

We are taking the underdog here at value odds. Kovacevic has the tools to cause problems on hard courts, and 4.40 is a generous enough price to justify a small speculative stake. Van de Zandschulp is the better player, but the market has priced him as though this match is already over. It is not.