Carlisle, Wednesday 24 June 2026: Tips and Best Bets

Carlisle, Wednesday 24 June 2026: Tips and Best Bets

A proper northern card at Carlisle on good to firm ground under sunny skies, and there are three races worth getting stuck into. The feature is the Listed Eternal Stakes, a fillies’ heat at 7f that has a clear market leader but also a genuine alternative at a price. The Carlisle Bell Handicap over a mile is a wide-open 17-runner cavalry charge, and the Cumberland Plate over 1m3f throws up an interesting course winner with conditions to suit. Let’s get into it.

4:02 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Eternal Stakes (Listed, 7f)

Albaydaa is the 6/5 favourite and the formbook broadly supports that position. William Haggas is firing at 28% at Carlisle and Tom Marquand takes the ride. She topped the figures for this field, has two wins in her last five, and won a handicap here last time with decisive tenacity. She handles the trip and the going without issue. If you want a banker, she is the logical one.

But Ellusive Butterfly at 11/4 is the selection here. K R Burke has a 19% strike rate at Carlisle with a positive A/E of 1.1, meaning his runners outperform their market expectations, and C Lee goes at 20% at the course with a healthy A/E of 1.09. That is two major statistical advantages stacking up before you even look at the form. Ellusive Butterfly won at Listed level over 7f last time, handled any going across her career, and operates from 7f to a mile. The penalty she carries is a fair concern, but Listed winners punished at this level are the kind of horse this race is set up for. Burke and Lee in tandem at Carlisle is not something to throw away lightly, and 11/4 about a filly with a recent Listed win looks workable.

Assaranca at 28/1 is too big to completely ignore if you want a lottery ticket on place terms. She shaped with promise at Epsom in a strong contest and clearly has some ability at this level. Golden Palace is a solid each-way option if the market firms against your primary selection, having been a close-up third at Musselburgh recently. The honest assessment, though: this race comes down to Albaydaa or Ellusive Butterfly, and the angle makes Burke’s filly the better-priced play.

Selection: Ellusive Butterfly at 11/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

4:35 Carlisle Bell Handicap (1m, 17 runners)

Seventeen runners over a mile in a handicap on good to firm ground. These races are designed to be tricky, and this one is no different. Altareq is the market leader at 4/1 but his York run was a complete capitulation and you are effectively being asked to trust the trainer to have that sorted. Paul Mulrennan is an excellent jockey and prior form over a mile on a sound surface is legitimate, but 4/1 about a horse coming off a well-beaten effort is a short price to take on trust.

Priapos Each-Way at 13/2 is the selection. He won a handicap at Carlisle last time, over the same trip in similar conditions, finishing well under pressure off a mark 3lb lower than today’s. That is the most recent relevant piece of evidence in the race and it points directly at this contest. Phillip Makin’s yard is ticking over with a 1/9 return in 14 days which is quiet but not alarming. First-time cheekpieces are being applied, which can sharpen a horse that already showed he handles this track. The 3lb rise is the only genuine negative. In a 17-runner field with five places paid at 1/5 odds, each-way at 13/2 is a solid position.

Glenfinnan at 11/1 is an interesting alternative with a hood fitted for the first time, and he is competitively weighted on earlier form. The headgear is the unknown element but it is the kind of move trainers make when they think a horse needs sparking. Each-way cover if the price holds.

Selection: Priapos Each-Way at 13/2 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

5:05 Cumberland Plate Handicap (1m3f, 12 runners)

Wine Dark Sea at 6/5 is the clear market leader and the form is solid enough, winning at Ascot last time with something to spare before stepping up to a competitive Class 4 off a higher mark. Harry Charlton’s yard has gone 0/9 in the last 14 days though, which is a cold spell that should give you at least some pause at this price.

Trojan Sun Each-Way at 11/1 is the angle play of the card. He won here at Carlisle last time with a willing display and now faces a 5lb penalty, which is a genuine hurdle. However, Paul Mulrennan has a 15% strike rate at this course and Trojan Sun acts on any turf surface over this trip and beyond. Jim Goldie’s yard has been busy and productive, sending out six winners from 35 runners in the last 14 days. A course winner carrying a penalty with a course-specialist jockey on board in a 12-runner handicap that pays four places at 11/1 is a genuinely attractive each-way proposition. The cheekpieces are a variable, but they have also been tried on others in this field, so it does not stand out as a particular concern.

Ludo’s Landing at 14/1 also merits a mention. Third at Hamilton last time off a comparable mark, he stays the trip and Charlie Johnston’s yard is in fair nick. The first-time blinkers add an unpredictable element, but in a competitive 12-runner field he represents some each-way value at the price if you want to split stakes.

Selection: Trojan Sun Each-Way at 11/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Today’s NAP

Ellusive Butterfly — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Eternal Stakes (4:02, Carlisle)
Odds: 11/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/4 Betfred, 11/4 LiveScore Bet)

K R Burke at 19% at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.1, C Lee at 20% at the track with an A/E of 1.09, and a horse coming in off a Listed win at this exact trip and trip range. Good to firm suits, she handles any surface, and the penalty she carries is a known quantity at this level rather than a killer blow. The market has Albaydaa as favourite on figures, but the trainer and jockey statistics at this course are too strong to ignore. 11/4 about a Listed winner with two course specialists in its corner is the best-value play on the card.