Carlisle, Tuesday 11 August 2026

Carlisle, Tuesday 11 August 2026

A steady six-race card at Carlisle on good ground, and there are three races worth getting stuck into. The course stats are worth keeping close: Clifford Lee and Ben Robinson both show above-average A/E figures here, and Hugo Palmer’s 25% strike rate at the track is the best of any trainer on today’s card. Keep those names in mind throughout.

With the York Ebor Festival just over a week away, plenty of decent horses are being kept ticking over in competitive provincial handicaps. That often means overlooked form and genuine value in the prices if you know where to look.

3:15 — National Racehorse Week EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (7f, Good)

Selection: Girl Scout at 11/4 (Boyle Sports, LiveScore Bet)

The market has Rogue Passion bang on favourite at 8/11, and she is not without claims after placing on her first two starts. But 8/11 in a five-runner novice for juveniles where experience is limited feels thin. The form she brings is modest, two placings in what looks soft company, and Edward Bethell’s yard is running at 17% here at Carlisle with an A/E below 1.0, which tells you they are not dramatically outperforming expectations at this track.

Girl Scout, trained by K.R. Burke and ridden by Clifford Lee, makes far more appeal at the price. Burke is operating at 20% at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.1 across a big enough sample to carry weight, and Lee’s course figures are consistently solid. A debut fifth is no disgrace over a shorter trip, and stepping up to seven furlongs on good ground suits a filly from this yard. Burke regularly improves juveniles significantly from run to run, and the booking of Lee, who rides here regularly to good effect, is a positive signal. The 11/4 available against an odds-on shot who hasn’t exactly demolished her rivals is more than fair.

3:45 — Colin Parker Raceday Nursery Handicap Stakes (5f, Good)

Selection: Concert Pitch Each-Way at 7/2 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

Seven runners, a competitive nursery, and a race where the comment data points pretty clearly in one direction. Concert Pitch, trained by Brian Ellison and ridden by Ben Robinson, has been placed second in two of his last three starts and arrives 22 days fresh. He has experience over five furlongs on good ground, and Robinson’s course A/E of 1.26 at Carlisle is the best of any jockey riding today. Ellison has been ticking along at 2/16 in the last two weeks which is respectable for a northern yard without a big string of entries.

The form reads 326622, consistent without being spectacular, but in a nursery handicap that is exactly the profile you want at 7/2. He is not exposed, he handles the conditions, and Robinson knowing the course well is a genuine edge in a tight sprint. The each-way case is solid at this price with two places on offer.

Lauralynn rated 74 has the highest official mark in the race and won two starts back, but 88 days off followed by a seventh last time is a pattern that requires explanation. Influencer Man is interesting at 11/4 after a promising second, but 5/2 with LiveScore Bet is thin for something yet to get its head in front.

4:45 — Ladies Night 2027 Handicap Stakes (1m6f, Good)

Selection: Shipshape at 9/4 (LiveScore Bet)

Asia Force at 6/4 is the market leader, and the form profile is tidy enough. Three seconds in five starts suggests talent, but also suggests a horse that finds a way not to win. The 41-day gap adds a question mark, and there is a better price available at the top of the market.

Shipshape, trained by Bernard Llewellyn, represents the value. The form reads 212112, a winner two starts back, a winner three starts back, and a runner-up last time out. That is a horse in career-best form at the right time. He handles today’s trip and going, and the 45-day absence is the one caveat, but Llewellyn has had four runners in the last two weeks for a win, which suggests the yard is at least ticking over. Oisin Orr takes the ride and has been in fine form on this card already.

At 9/4 with LiveScore Bet against a favourite at 6/4 who has failed to convert in his last five, Shipshape carries the better form into this race. Gibside each-way at 8/1 is worth a small interest given the comment about his rating of 79 against an official mark of 70, but Shipshape is the win bet.

Today’s NAP

Shipshape — Ladies Night 2027 Handicap Stakes (4:45, Carlisle)
Odds: 9/4 — LiveScore Bet (others: 11/4 Boyle Sports, 11/4 Betfred)

Two wins and a second in his last three starts make Shipshape comfortably the most in-form horse in the race. He handles good ground over a mile and six furlongs, the course specialist data favours his connections, and at 9/4 he is available at a bigger price than Asia Force despite carrying the superior recent form. The favourite has finished second three times in five starts without converting. Back the horse who has been winning.