Cartmel, Monday 25 May: Tips & Analysis

Cartmel, Monday 25 May: Tips & Analysis

Cartmel on a sunny Bank Holiday is one of jump racing’s great occasions. The tight, undulating track around the Cumbrian countryside sorts out horses who know their way around from those who don’t, and course form is a serious weapon here. Good ground suits proper staying types, and with three featured races on today’s card that all reward form study, there is real value to find. The Skelton yard is operating at a strong 10/28 clip over the last fortnight, Mickey Bowen’s string keeps running well in spots, and Christian Williams has two live claims in the opener. Let’s get into it.

3:23 — RF Miller & Co Handicap Hurdle (3m1½f)

Selection: Al Sayah Each-Way at 5/1 (BoyleSports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet)

Neil Mulholland’s mare is the most compelling profile in this 12-runner handicap. She has won five times over hurdles, her latest success came at Taunton over 3m on good ground in cheekpieces, and she followed that up with a career-best effort when keeping on for a close third in a valuable Haydock handicap (3m, good) just 16 days ago. She was wearing a visor that day and performed right up to the level required to be competitive here. The going is a perfect match, the trip suits her strongly, and the form from Haydock is rock solid. Trainer stats are modest at 2/22, but the form speaks for itself, and 5/1 in a wide-open handicap represents fair each-way value with three places on offer at 1/5 odds.

The market has Tranquil Sea as a short 3/1 favourite, and Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton (10/28) are rightfully respected, but the traffic issues at Haydock leave a question mark over how that run translates. Roger Pol at 15/2 is interesting if the Snowden yard fires first time out after a quiet return, and Imperial Data is a three-time course winner only 1lb above his last C&D winning mark, making him a dangerous 18/1 outsider. For each-way punters on a tighter budget, Imperial Data at that price deserves a small sprinkle.

3:58 — Hugh Cavendish Veterans’ Handicap Chase (3m5½f)

Selection: Fairlawn Flyer at 9/4 (BoyleSports, Betfred)

Mickey Bowen fields two here and Fairlawn Flyer is the pick of the pair. Ten wins from 28 starts over fences, three of those at Cartmel over 3m1f, tells you all you need to know about this horse’s relationship with the track. He was below his best at Ffos Las this month on his return from a break, which is not unusual for a ten-year-old needing the run, but the key point is that he is back on a good mark and steps back up to this marathon 3m5f trip that will genuinely suit his staying profile. Good ground is fine for him.

Tommie Beau is odds-on in places at 7/4 Betfred and he won the Norfolk National at Fakenham three weeks ago, but the handicapper’s help has now been removed and his inconsistency is a real concern. Fairlawn Flyer at 9/4 is a more trustworthy each-way proposition in a tiny field, though with only five runners and two places at 1/4 odds, win stakes make more sense here. Stratagem (5/1) is a fresh angle after a promising third here at the weekend, and My Bobby Dazzler (7/2) has class but the Aintree refusal is a flag you cannot ignore.

5:11 — Warrior Down Handicap Chase (2m5f)

Selection: Pony Soprano at 4/6 (BoyleSports, Betfred)

Yes, 4/6 is not a price you back to get rich. But this is the one race on the card where there is a genuinely standout horse, and that needs saying clearly. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton combined for a first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces job at Uttoxeter this month, got Pony Soprano off the mark over fences at the fifth attempt, and the horse won with something to spare over 2m5f on good ground. That is an identical trip and going to today. The 7lb rise is a consideration but Skelton rarely runs horses back up in grade without believing there is more to come, and with only five runners this is a race to get your money back on rather than speculate at big prices.

Sean Og (4/1) is the main danger. A dual Cartmel winner, he returns to familiar territory on a workable mark and Sean Quinlan knows how to ride this track. If Pony Soprano has any chink in his armour, Sean Og is the one most likely to exploit it. Pour Les Filles (13/2) has too much to prove after a string of disappointing efforts.

Today’s NAP