Cartmel, Sunday 28 June: Tips and Analysis

Cartmel, Sunday 28 June: Tips and Analysis

Cartmel on a damp Sunday in late June. Light rain has nudged the going toward the softer end of Good, which will suit horses that get their toe in rather than pure speedsters. It is a tight, turning track where course specialists and local trainers hold a genuine edge, and the stats bear that out clearly. Sam England, Donald McCain, and Tristan Davidson all carry strong records here, and on the jockey side Richie McLernon’s A/E of 1.33 makes him one of the most profitable riders to follow at this venue. Three races feature today, and there is at least one standout bet across the card.

1:57 — Molson Coors Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2m1f)

Gordon Elliott sends over Cinating at a price that reflects her quality rather than offering any real value at 8/15. That said, the angle is clear: she landed a maiden hurdle at Roscommon by four and a quarter lengths on her most recent start, bouncing back from a debut fall, and Elliott’s yard carries a 27% strike rate at Cartmel. Sean Bowen is aboard, another positive given his 22% course record here. A first-time hood is tried, which can sharpen a young filly, and the Good ground suits. She heads the ratings and has the class to win this comfortably. No each-way case at those odds.

Selection: Cinating — 8/15 (Boyle Sports)

Each-way punters should look elsewhere in this race. Crokes Cross at 11/1 is interesting having won on her hurdling debut at Kelso off a big price, but the 87-day break is a concern. Eremenko (9/4, Donald McCain) heads our ratings on earlier form and McCain’s Cartmel record demands respect, though the pulled-up run at Bangor keeps her at bay as a main selection.

3:37 — Oakmere Homes Handicap Hurdle (2m1f, 11 runners)

Fiveonefive Each-Way is the horse the market clearly respects at 7/2 with Boyle Sports, and with good reason. This is a genuine Cartmel specialist who has won this exact race in each of the last three seasons. He drops to a handicap mark 2lb lower than 12 months ago, which means connections have identified a live opportunity. First-time cheekpieces are fitted after he failed to stay at Ballinrobe, and the return to Cartmel trips over hurdles is precisely what he wants. Trainer Cian Collins has a 22% win rate at this track and an A/E of 2.07, the highest in the trainer stats, suggesting his runners consistently outperform their market price. Three places at 1/5 the odds in an 11-runner handicap is workable each-way cover.

Selection: Fiveonefive — 7/2 (Boyle Sports, LiveScore Bet)

The main danger is Amancio (11/2), who showed guts to win a handicap at Carlisle off a 44lb lower mark last time. Front-runner, tongue-tie fitted, and trainer Faye Bramley is 2/8 in the last 14 days. He will ensure a strong gallop from the front, which suits Cartmel’s tight bends. Filibustering (11/2) brings back-to-back hurdles wins into this and handles the ground, so he cannot be ignored either.

At bigger prices, Banderas at 16/1 with Sam England training is worth a small each-way flutter. England’s 20% strike rate at Cartmel and A/E of 1.14 means his runners pay their way, and Richie McLernon would have been a tempting jockey booking here had he been named. Tongue-tie is new and the trip suits.

4:15 — Oakmere Homes Handicap Chase (2m5f, 6 runners)

Six runners and a tight contest, but one horse stands out considerably. Sean Og (11/4, Boyle Sports) thrives at this course and made that abundantly clear last time out here, winning a handicap chase by five and a half lengths in dominant fashion. Connections have taken the last two renewals of this race, and Sean Quinlan is an excellent course booking with a 15% win rate and an A/E of 1.20 at Cartmel. He is 7lb higher than when he won here, which is the only note of caution, but a horse that wins by that margin on a track he loves can absorb a rise. Six runners means each-way terms of two places at 1/4, which narrows the each-way case, so this is a win bet.

Selection: Sean Og — 11/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred)

The main market rival is Buy Some Time (11/4), who won at Perth by six lengths last time and is consistent over this range of trips. The hood and tongue-tie are new additions. However, trainer R Mike Smith is 0/13 in the last 14 days, and that cold yard stat is a significant deterrent at the same price as a proven Cartmel specialist.

Breizh River (3/1, Tristan Davidson) went down by only three quarters of a length last time and Davidson carries a 21% win rate at the track. Harry Reed takes the ride, another strong course booking with an A/E of 1.20. At 3/1 he represents solid each-way value in any other race, but with only six runners and two places on offer, the risk-reward tilts firmly toward Sean Og.

Today’s NAP

Sean Og — Oakmere Homes Handicap Chase (4:15, Cartmel)
Odds: 11/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/4 Betfred, 11/4 LiveScore Bet)

Course form this compelling simply does not get ignored. Sean Og has won the last two renewals of this race and bolted up by five and a half lengths at Cartmel on his most recent outing. Sean Quinlan, a jockey who performs above market expectations at this track, takes the ride for a yard that clearly targets this race. The 7lb rise looks manageable for a horse so at home on this tight circuit, and at 11/4 on good ground with light rain adding a touch of cut, the price is fair for what is effectively a course-and-distance specialist at the peak of his powers.