Chepstow Tips: Monday 15 June 2026

Chepstow Tips: Monday 15 June 2026

A Monday card at Chepstow on good to soft ground, and there are three races worth pinpointing across an eight-race programme. The going suits horses with a bit of class rather than pure speedsters, and the combination of trainer and jockey course stats points clearly to a couple of angles worth backing. While Eastbourne International dominates the sporting headlines today, there is plenty of value to dig into down at the Welsh track.

2:55 — Susan Wastie Memorial / EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (6f)

Selection: Spirit Tango — 3/1 Boyle Sports

The market leader here is Eabha at 11/10, who showed promise on debut when finishing third, and that form is solid. But Ralph Beckett’s Spirit Tango at 3/1 represents significantly better value and the angle is compelling on multiple fronts.

Beckett hits 23% at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.11, meaning he consistently outperforms market expectation at this track. The stat matters here because he is sending a runner from a yard that knows exactly what it takes to win at this course. Crucially, the booking of Rossa Ryan is the second big flag. Ryan lands 20% of his rides at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.14, one of the strongest course jockey profiles in the data. When Beckett and Ryan combine at a track where both are operating above market expectation, you pay attention.

Good to soft ground at six furlongs suits a filly bred to need a bit of ease, and the selection is a debut runner with Beckett having clearly readied her for this assignment rather than using today as a learning exercise. Eabha’s third on debut is the obvious form reference, but the market has overreacted to that run. Spirit Tango at 3/1 is the value call.

5:05 — Chepstow Mile Series Qualifier Handicap, Division I (1m)

Selection: Scenario Each-Way — 9/1 Boyle Sports

Eleven runners over a mile on good to soft, and the standout angle here is trainer Tony Carroll. Carroll has gone 12 from 49 in the last 14 days, an extraordinary hot streak that makes his runners impossible to ignore in modest handicap company. Scenario carries the 9/1 price that reflects her inconsistent recent form figures, but form in this grade is notoriously unreliable and the trainer stats override surface-level concerns.

The market favourite Redhot Whisper at 9/4 has posted consistent placed efforts but that 0-9033 form string tells you the horse keeps finishing second and third without winning. At the price, you are backing a horse to finally convert placed form into a win in this grade, which is not the most compelling proposition when a yard operating at a near 25% strike rate over the past fortnight has a 9/1 shot in the same race.

Each-way is very much the play here with 11 runners and three places paid at 1/5 odds. At 9/1, a place return of nearly 2/1 is excellent cover in a wide-open heat.

5:35 — Chepstow Mile Series Qualifier Handicap, Division II (1m)

Selection: Seconds Count Each-Way — 6/1 Boyle Sports

Division II of the same qualifier and this one is arguably the most intriguing race on the card. Three separate course angles converge on a single runner and it is difficult to dismiss.

Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole’s yard hits 18% at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.12, meaning their runners are consistently returning value at this track rather than just being market movers. The 4/33 strike rate over the last 14 days shows a yard operating at a healthy clip. The key booking is Rossa Ryan again, 20% at Chepstow with that A/E of 1.14. A Newland-Ryan combination at a track where both connections outperform expectation is a straightforward positive angle.

Seconds Count’s form of 3649-4 reads as frustratingly consistent without winning, but this is a mile handicap on good to soft and the horse clearly handles conditions. The 6/1 price in an 11-runner field with three places available is solid each-way territory. A Rose Adaay at similar odds from Grace Harris is the main danger, but Seconds Count has the stronger course connections case.

Racing Demon for Ed de Giles also catches the eye at 7/1. De Giles has the best A/E of any trainer at this track at 1.39 and is worth noting for multiples. But the Newland-Ryan combo on Seconds Count is the sharper play at the price.

Today’s NAP

Spirit Tango — Susan Wastie Memorial EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (2:55, Chepstow)
Odds: 3/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 10/3 Betfred)

The Beckett-Ryan combination at Chepstow is backed by the hardest course numbers on the card, with both trainer and jockey posting above-market A/E figures at this track. Spirit Tango is a debut runner from a yard that sends horses here ready to win, not learn. At 3/1 against an odds-on favourite whose form amounts to a single placed run, the value is clear.