Chepstow, Saturday 27 June: Tips & Selections

Chepstow, Saturday 27 June: Tips & Selections

A seven-race card at Chepstow on good to firm ground, partly sunny skies, and a mix of novice stakes and handicaps that throw up some genuine angles. The surface suits horses with a preference for a sound surface, and with James Owen operating at a remarkable 33% strike rate at this track, you want to know when his string turns up. Three races stand out as value propositions today.

6:00 — Hayleys Race To Happily Ever After Restricted Novice Stakes (6f)

Selection: Lushill at 6/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred)

This is a wide-open novice contest for two-year-olds and the form book is thin across the board, but Lushill catches the eye on her debut performance at Newbury. She went down by only 2 and a quarter lengths in a novice on ground to suit and that is a respectable effort for a first run. The step up in experience from that Newbury outing, combined with good to firm conditions today at six furlongs, aligns well.

Miss Moneypit also merits consideration after running at this very track last time, and she is second on the figures, but Lushill’s debut form on faster ground reads the strongest in context. The query is the quick turnaround after just four days, which you cannot ignore, but J S Moore’s yard will have sent her here ready to run.

Dream On Kent looked solid at Chester, beaten only a length over seven furlongs in a seller, but the drop back to six furlongs does carry genuine doubt and sellers flatter horses at times.

Lushill, 6/1, is the pick. The debut form is the most compelling piece of evidence in a tricky race, and she holds a rating edge that makes the price workable.

5:25 — UB40 Ali Campbell At Chepstow Racecourse 24th July Handicap (1m2f)

Selection: Notable Charm at 5/1 (LiveScore Bet)

Marcus Tregoning runs at 20% at Chepstow with a positive A/E of 1.16, and his runners here deserve respect. Notable Charm arrives on his handicap debut off the back of maiden form that includes a keenly-run sixth at Salisbury, but the critical point is this: horses making the switch into handicaps for the first time often carry a significant ratings edge, and our figures give him a clear advantage over this field.

A Daughters Love is the obvious market leader at 7/4 and she is coming off a third at Ffos Las just four days ago, which commands respect. But the quick back-to-back nature of her schedule is a legitimate concern, and at 7/4 the market is pricing her with little room for error.

Notable Charm at 5/1 on his handicap bow, in a yard that travels well to this track, makes considerably more appeal from a value standpoint. The going suits, the trip is an unknown but he has the breeding to handle it, and handicap debutants with a ratings edge are the bread and butter of finding winners at this type of meeting.

Notable Charm, 5/1, is the selection.

7:35 — Congratulations Dan & Grace Handicap (1m)

Selection: Gennadius at 9/2 (Boyle Sports / Betfred)

Gennadius heads the field on the figures and there is a solid case for him despite the added cheekpieces suggesting connections are looking for more. He finished runner-up at Pontefract just six days ago, running on late to go down by three and a quarter lengths off this identical mark. He is versatile on the ground, comfortable at a mile, and the headgear change is relatively minor rather than a sign of a horse in trouble.

Richard Hannon’s yard is operating at 7 from 67 in the last fortnight, decent volume with a positive return. Gennadius is consistent enough to hold his position at the top of this market, and the form lines make him straightforward to support.

Great Blasket is interesting at 4/1. He won this very race 12 months ago and the course form is real, backed by a trainer combination in Newland and Insole who punch above their weight at Chepstow (17% strike rate, A/E of 1.08). First-time blinkers on a confirmed course winner is a combination that demands attention. He is the alternative if you want to go against the market.

Happy Banner at 7/4 is a shade too short for a horse that has been placed three times without winning recently. He is solid but the value is elsewhere.

Gennadius, 9/2, heads the betting on merit.

Today’s NAP

Notable Charm — UB40 Ali Campbell At Chepstow Racecourse 24th July Handicap (5:25, Chepstow)
Odds: 5/1 — LiveScore Bet (others: 9/2 Boyle Sports, 9/2 Betfred)

Handicap debutants with a clear ratings advantage are a consistent source of value, and Notable Charm fits that profile perfectly. Marcus Tregoning travels well to Chepstow with a 20% strike rate and a positive A/E at the track, the good to firm surface presents no issue, and at 5/1 you are getting a price that reflects the uncertainty of a first handicap run without factoring in the ratings edge properly. A Daughters Love at 7/4 is the clear danger, but four days between runs and cramped odds leave plenty of margin for Notable Charm to exploit at the bigger price.

Each-Way Recommended 3 places at 1/5 odds