Congo DR vs Uzbekistan Betting Tips 2026

Form and Group Stage Stakes

Both sides arrive at Mercedes-Benz Stadium with their World Cup campaigns in tatters, but there’s a clear difference in the nature of their struggles. Congo DR have shown they can compete at this level. A draw against Portugal and a narrow 0-1 defeat to Colombia isn’t embarrassing on paper, even if it leaves them eliminated from contention for the knockout rounds. They’ve got a squad with real Premier League quality through the likes of Yoane Wissa, Wan-Bissaka, Masuaku, and Mbemba. The tools are there.

Uzbekistan’s group stage has been a different story entirely. The 0-5 thrashing at the hands of Portugal was brutal, and following that up with a 1-3 home loss to Colombia means they’re heading into this final group game pointless, goalless in confidence, and with a defensive record that reads 12 goals conceded across their last five matches in all competitions. That’s not just poor form, that’s a side who’ve been systematically taken apart every time they’ve faced quality opposition.

Their last four results before this fixture are four defeats. The Venezuela draw before the tournament now looks like an outlier against genuinely weaker opposition. Uzbekistan’s confidence will be in a fragile place, and Congo DR will know it.

Goals Markets

With Uzbekistan shipping 12 goals in their last five and looking defensively shaky against anything with pace and directness, goals feel very much on the cards here. Congo DR aren’t a free-scoring side, managing just three goals in their last five, but Uzbekistan’s backline has been generous to everyone they’ve faced. Both Over 2.5 Goals and Under 2.5 Goals are priced at 1.91, which makes it a coin flip on paper, but the underlying data leans toward goals given how exposed Uzbekistan have been. Congo DR have the attacking personnel to exploit that, and a side as demoralised as Uzbekistan rarely suddenly tightens up in a dead rubber. Over 2.5 looks the more logical side of that market at 1.91.

Team News

No notable injury concerns heading into this one, with both sides looking to name a strong squad as the fixture allows.

The Betting Angle

The Poisson model gives Congo DR a 45% win probability versus just 10% for Uzbekistan, with the draw making up the rest. But this is a dead rubber for both teams, and those situations can produce strange results. What tips the balance is Uzbekistan’s psychological state. A 0-5 hammering from Portugal, followed by another defeat, followed by this, is not a scenario that breeds resilience.

Congo DR at 4.3 represents genuine value for a team that was competitive against Colombia and Portugal, two sides who look like contenders in this tournament. The Leopards have the squad depth and the Premier League-grade talent to impose themselves on a side this depleted in confidence. Wissa up front at 4.75 for first goalscorer is a very reasonable price given the matchup. If you want a slightly bigger price on the scoresheet front, Fiston Mayele at 5.5 or Cedric Bakambu at 5.5 are both worth a look as secondary options.

The draw is always a risk in a nothing game, but Uzbekistan’s form and morale give little reason to back them over 90 minutes. Congo DR to get the win, see out the tournament on a positive note, and do it at a price that reflects the underdog tag they don’t quite deserve.