Conference League Hangover Meets a Scrappy Everton Side
Crystal Palace have one eye firmly on the Conference League final after booking their place in the last four with a 2-1 win over Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday. That result, coming just two days before this Premier League fixture, means Oliver Glasner faces a genuine rotation headache. Legs will be heavy at Selhurst Park. European nights at this stage of the season carry a physical cost, and Palace have been grinding through a heavy schedule that makes their 15th-place league position feel slightly misleading.
Their domestic form tells a cleaner story. Beaten 3-0 at Bournemouth and 3-1 at Liverpool in their last two league outings, Palace have looked leggy when the tempo goes up against quality opposition. A 0-0 home draw with West Ham before that doesn't exactly scream firepower. The Europa Conference League has clearly been the priority, and rightly so, but Glasner will have to manage minutes carefully here.
Everton's Form: Inconsistent but Capable of Goals
David Moyes has a side that can't quite settle on a result from one game to the next. A chaotic 3-3 draw at home to Manchester City followed a 2-1 loss at West Ham, a 2-1 home defeat to Liverpool, and a 2-2 draw at Brentford. Before that run, though, they hammered Chelsea 3-0 at Goodison. Three of their five attacking players in double figures for goals, with Kieran Dewsbury-Hall, Beto and Tariq Barry all on eight goals for the season, give them genuine threat across the pitch.
Sitting 10th on 48 points with a level goal difference, Everton are a mid-table side who can occasionally punch upwards. Their away record reads seven wins from 17, which is reasonable without being elite. They won't be afraid of this trip.
Injuries and the H2H Picture
Palace have confirmed absences for Daichi Kamada, Chadi Riad and Ismaila Sarr. Sarr missing is significant. He has seven goals and an assist in 24 appearances this season and provides direct running and width that Palace don't easily replace. With a tired squad already stretched, losing one of their main attacking threats makes life harder for Glasner. Everton head into this one with no confirmed injury concerns, which is a meaningful advantage given the context.
Head-to-head, Everton have had the better of this fixture recently. They beat Palace 2-1 back in October at Goodison and also came from behind to win 2-1 at Selhurst Park last February. That's three wins from the last five meetings, including an FA Cup victory in January 2024. Palace's only recent positive at home against Everton was a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park, also from that period. Everton know how to beat this side, and they've done it at Palace's ground in the not-too-distant past.
The Betting Angle
The fatigue factor is the thing that keeps pulling me back here. Palace played a competitive European knockout tie two days ago, they're missing Sarr, and their last two league results have been heavy defeats away from home. Glasner will rotate to protect legs ahead of what could be a Conference League final push, and that makes their defensive shape and attacking cohesion less reliable than usual.
Everton, fully rested and with no injury concerns, have three players tied on eight league goals. They don't need their first team to have a perfect game to nick this. At 2.65, Everton represent genuine value against a tired, depleted Palace side that has bigger fish to fry this month.
The goals market is tempting too. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and with Palace likely rotating, defensive organisation could slip. Over 2.5 at 2.04 is not unattractive, but the match result is the cleaner play.
Odds: 2.65 โ BoyleSports
Crystal Palace are two days off a European fixture, missing Sarr, and have lost their last two league games heavily. Everton arrive fully rested with three players on eight goals each and a strong recent record in this fixture. The value is clearly with the away side.