Selhurst Park Shootout: Palace Host Everton With Conference League Dream Still Alive
Crystal Palace have one eye firmly on the Conference League final after beating Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 in the semi-final second leg. That European run is the most exciting thing to happen at Selhurst Park in years, and Oliver Glasner deserves enormous credit for keeping two competitions alive simultaneously. The problem is, the domestic form is starting to suffer for it.
Palace have lost four of their last five in the Premier League. The 0-3 hammering at Bournemouth last time out was a bad one, and that kind of result does dent confidence going into the next match. They sit 15th on 43 points, which is Premier League safety, but only just. This Everton fixture is not a dead rubber for Glasner's side if they want to finish the season with any dignity.
Form and League Picture
Everton are the more comfortable side in the table right now. Tenth on 48 points with a neutral goal difference, David Moyes has steadied the ship considerably. They drew 3-3 with Manchester City at home last week, which tells you this squad can score and create. Dewsbury-Hall has eight goals this season, Beto has matched that, and Ndiaye adds genuine quality going forward with six. They have goals across the squad, and that makes them awkward to plan against.
Palace's own top scorer, Jean-Philippe Mateta, has ten for the season, but Ismaila Sarr is currently listed as missing this fixture, and losing him is a real blow. He has seven goals in 24 appearances and provides the directness and pace that makes Palace hard to contain on the counter. Without him, Glasner has less variety in the final third.
Everton's absentees include Harrison Armstrong and Vitaliy Mykolenko, which affects their left flank options. Mykolenko in particular is a meaningful loss for how Moyes wants to defend, but Palace may not have the sharpness to fully exploit it given their own squad limitations this week.
Head-to-Head and Venue
Head-to-head records between these two sides across recent seasons have been tight. Neither team dominates this fixture historically, and close scorelines tend to be the theme. At Selhurst Park, Palace have won four, drawn eight and lost five at home this season, which tells you they are not exactly a fortress in SE25. They grind draws, they occasionally nick wins, but they concede enough to keep games open.
Everton away this season reads W7 D4 L6. They travel reasonably well, and Moyes tends to set his side up to be solid and hard to beat on the road. Three wins, three draws and three losses in their last nine away Premier League games is a decent return, and they arrive here with more confidence than Palace despite the Bournemouth defeat acting as a leveller.
The Betting Angle
Palace going into this off the back of a 0-3 defeat, with Sarr out, carrying European fixture fatigue and a run of form that reads L, W, L, D, L across five matches is not an inspiring profile for backing them at home. The 2.88 on offer reflects a genuine split in the market, but the value is not there for me on Glasner's side right now.
Everton at 2.75 is marginal but represents the better side on current form. They are higher in the table, their strikers are firing, and they have the away record to support backing them on the road. With Sarr missing, Palace's threat is blunted. Beto and Dewsbury-Hall against a Palace defence that has conceded nine goals across their last five matches in all competitions is a matchup that suits Everton.
The draw at 3.45 is not unattractive if you think Palace dig in at home, but Everton's goals threat and Palace's recent defensive record tips me toward the away side.
Odds: 2.75 โ Pinnacle
Palace are carrying fatigue from the Conference League, Sarr is out, and their domestic form has been poor. Everton arrive in better shape, with Dewsbury-Hall and Beto both hitting double figures or close to it, and a solid away record that makes them hard to write off at Selhurst Park.
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