Crystal Palace 
Newcastle United Conference League High vs Premier League Rut
Crystal Palace arrive at this one on the back of something genuinely impressive. A 3-0 home win over Fiorentina in the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals last Thursday confirmed Palace are a proper cup team this season, and Oliver Glasner has clearly found something in Europe that hasn't always translated domestically. Their Premier League form tells a different story: four of the last five league results have ended in draws, and a home record of W3 D7 L5 at Selhurst Park shows this is not a side that dominates on their own patch.
Newcastle come in battered. A 7-2 hammering at Barcelona in the Champions League, followed by a 2-1 home defeat to Sunderland in the league, is not a sequence that fills you with confidence about Eddie Howe's squad right now. They did manage a 1-0 win at Chelsea before that Barcelona carnage, so there's quality in there, but the legs look heavy and the result column is punishing them. Twelfth in the table, three points above Palace, neither side is tearing the league apart.
Injuries and Team News
Palace are without Ismaila Sarr, which is a meaningful blow. He's got seven goals and an assist in 20 appearances this season, and his directness causes problems. Daichi Kamada and Chadi Riad are also missing. Sarr's absence makes Jean-Philippe Mateta the clear focal point, and the Frenchman leads Palace's scoring charts with eight goals in 24 appearances. Idrissa Strand Larsen (three goals in six apps) could push for a start to cover the loss.
For Newcastle, Sven Botman and Lewis Hall are both out, and with a news update flagging questions around Bruno Guimarães' availability, this could be a serious problem. Bruno has nine goals and four assists in 23 appearances this season and is the heartbeat of how Newcastle play. If he doesn't start, the visitors lose their most important player. Willock is also missing. Howe is going to be patching gaps across the squad here.
Head-to-Head Context
The recent H2H is almost entirely tilted in Newcastle's favour. They won 5-0 at St James' Park last season in April 2025, and then again 2-0 at home in January this year. Palace did take a 2-0 win at Selhurst Park back in April 2024, but that feels like a long time ago. Three of the last five meetings have ended with Newcastle winning and Palace shipping multiple goals. This is not a head-to-head that encourages Palace backers.
That said, the January fixture earlier this 2025/26 season was a Newcastle win on their own turf. When they come to Selhurst Park, the dynamic shifts slightly, and Palace's away record this season (W7 D2 L6) is actually better than their home form. Make of that what you will.
The Betting Angle
The case for Newcastle at 2.36 is real, but there are too many question marks around who actually takes the pitch. If Bruno Guimarães is absent or half-fit, their creative output drops sharply. Palace, still buzzing from the Fiorentina result and playing in front of their own fans, won't just roll over. The 3-0 Conference League win showed they can create and finish.
Where I see the value is in the goals market. Palace are coming off back-to-back European ties and a 0-0 in the league against Leeds. They've scored three and kept a clean sheet in Europe, but Newcastle have been leaking goals at a worrying rate: 13 against in five matches, including that Barcelona nightmare. Palace, even without Sarr, have enough in Mateta, Daniel Muñoz (three goals and two assists) and Marc Guéhi (two goals this season) to create problems. And Newcastle, for all their struggles, have Bruno or Woltemade (seven goals in 27 apps) capable of hurting any defence on the break.
Both sides have reasons to score. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.79 looks like the cleanest line here given the Newcastle defensive exposure and Palace's recent attacking confidence off the back of a big European night.
Odds: 1.79 — LeoVegas (SE)
Newcastle have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches and are missing defensive cover at the back. Palace have genuine goalscoring threats even with Sarr out, and Selhurst Park will be bouncing after that Fiorentina win. Three or more goals in this one looks likelier than the market suggests.