Curragh, Saturday 23 May: Tips and Best Bets

Curragh, Saturday 23 May: Tips and Best Bets

A cracking Saturday card at the Curragh with three Pattern races headlining, topped by the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas at 3:40. Good to yielding ground suits most of the principals, and with Aidan O’Brien holding the keys to the short-priced favourite, the value hunting becomes an exercise in finding the one horse most likely to spring a surprise. The Canadian Grand Prix fires up in Montreal tomorrow, but right now the focus is firmly on the Curragh.

3:05 — Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2, 6f)

Selection: Powerful Glory (5/1, Boyle Sports) Each-Way

This is the race of the card for value hunters. Powerful Glory is genuinely fascinating. Richard and Peter Fahey’s yard is clocking an 8/60 strike rate over the last 14 days, not spectacular, but the horse himself carries a profile that demands respect. His juvenile form was smart, then he produced that stunning 200/1 shock in the Group 1 at Ascot in October, beating Lazaat on good ground after wind surgery. The key word there is good ground. Today’s good to yielding is right in his wheelhouse.

The concern is mileage on the clock, but the Fahey yard tend to have these horses sharp for big days, and Jamie Spencer is not a jockey who takes big-race bookings lightly. His RPR of 125 is bang on the level required to be competitive here, and he’s actually got relatively few hard races in his legs for a five-year-old.

Comanche Favourite at 5/2 with Ryan Moore is a tempting shout, but the trip looks sharp for him given his best form has come at 7f and a mile. Bucanero Fuerte showed nothing on soft at Cork last time, and while his C&D form is strong, that seasonal debut performance was worrying. Powerful Glory at 5/1 looks the value angle in what shapes as a genuinely open race.

3:40 — Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1, 1m)

Selection: Alparslan Each-Way (8/1, Boyle Sports)

Gstaad is an odds-on machine at 3/10, and Ryan Moore is booked, so the favourite will probably win. But 3/10 is not a price you bet seriously at, and the task here is to find the each-way value at a competitive price.

Alparslan at 8/1 with Boyle Sports is the angle. Karl Burke’s colt won the Greenham at Newbury on reappearance over 7f on good ground, reversing form with Zavateri from the Dewhurst, and he’s unexposed at this trip. Crucially, he missed the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, so while Gstaad came home 8 lengths clear there, Alparslan has not been exposed on that stage. He arrives fresh. The Greenham form is solid, Burke’s yard has been operating at a respectable clip, and Sam James is not picking up a Group 1 spare ride lightly.

The three-places each-way terms at 1/5 odds are very workable at 8/1. Distant Storm with cheekpieces fitted is a bigger price but needs to find 8 lengths on Gstaad, and the headgear addition at Group 1 level usually signals a trainer clutching at straws rather than unlocking a monster. Alparslan as the place bet makes far more appeal.

4:15 — Heider Family Stables Gallinule Stakes (Group 3, 1m2f)

Selection: Causeway (4/5, Boyle Sports)

Short odds, but this one is genuinely hard to oppose at the prices. Ryan Moore’s choice speaks volumes. When the retained rider at Ballydoyle is offered a choice between a higher-rated stablemate and Causeway in a Listed race 19 days ago, and he picks Causeway, that is information you act on. He won that race comfortably.

The profile stacks up neatly. A maiden win at the Curragh on very soft in October, a handicap win at Naas on soft on return off 94, and then that smooth Listed success at this track. He’s clearly improving rapidly, the Curragh form lines are consistent, and the step to 1m2f is the natural progression given his breeding. Aidan O’Brien’s yard is moving at 8/47 over 14 days, not a yard out of form.

At 4/5 this is not a value bet in the traditional sense, but in a race where the second-favourite Shaihaan got upset in the stalls last time and the rest of the field are largely unproven at this level or trip, Causeway is a confident single. Back him to win.

Today’s NAP