Doncaster, Saturday 1 August: Tips and Best Bets

Doncaster, Saturday 1 August: Tips and Best Bets

Good to firm ground at Doncaster on a summer Saturday, and the card throws up some genuinely interesting angles across three featured races. The straight mile and seven furlongs here rewards horses that travel fluently and handle a quick surface, so anything with soft-ground form as their best effort can be filed away immediately. Trainer stats matter here too. Edward Bethell operates at 15% at this track over a reasonable sample, which is steady rather than electric, but he saddles live candidates in two of the three races we’re focusing on.

1:55 Aalberts IPS Pegler Valves Novice Stakes (6f, Good To Firm)

Six furlongs, six runners, and a market dominated by Kohana Nation at 4/5 with Charles Hills sending him out under Oisin Orr. The form reading of 72 barely fills the notebook, and at odds-on for a horse whose last run is a dash, you are being asked to take a lot on trust.

The value sits with Brash at 15/8 (Boyle Sports, Betfred). David Barron’s gelding has actually been asked questions in five starts and shaped with enough credit across that 77324 sequence to suggest today’s drop back to six furlongs on quick ground suits. Third two starts back and fourth most recently, David Nolan keeps the ride, which is not a jockey who gets on the plane for Doncaster without purpose. Barron’s yard has been ticking along and the horse is better than his price implies in a race where the jolly is carrying a big question mark.

If Kohana Nation fires on ability alone he wins, but 4/5 is no price to find out. Brash at evens-plus is the play.

Selection: Brash, 15/8, Boyle Sports or Betfred

2:30 Bapp Group of Companies Nursery Handicap Stakes (7f, Good To Firm)

A five-runner nursery and the market has made its mind up about Weleyff, sent off at 10/11 for Edward Bethell. That confidence is understandable. Form of 31, a win last time, experience of seven furlongs and this going, and Oisin Orr booked again. The yard fires at 15% at Doncaster, which is respectable, and the horse is rated 86 which tops the field on official figures.

The question is whether you want to play odds-on in a five-runner nursery where the handicapper has had his say. Eighth Immortal at 10/3 (Boyle Sports, Betfred) is the each-way alternative worth serious consideration. Rated 96, which is the highest RPR in the race on the data available, and his 23 sequence shows back-to-back placed efforts at this level. Jack Jones’s yard has been quiet, but the horse carries his form honestly, has the trip and conditions covered, and is available at a price that gives you some air to breathe.

Weleyff is likely the winner, but Eighth Immortal at 10/3 makes the each-way case in a race where two places are paid.

Selection: Weleyff, 10/11, Boyle Sports or LiveScore Bet

4:15 Winners Wear Skopes Menswear Handicap Stakes (7f, Good To Firm)

Six runners, seven furlongs, and this is the race of the day for a value angle. The market is split between Haaderr at 9/4 and First Time at 2/1, with the form case for both reasonably straightforward. But neither represents value at those prices in a competitive handicap.

Suspicious Mindz Each-Way at 5/1 (Boyle Sports, Betfred, LiveScore Bet) is the selection. Seb Spencer’s gelding arrives on the back of a win last time out, handles seven furlongs and good to firm ground, and draws stall two which is a clean position on this track. The form line of 3-2371 is more substantial than it first looks. A winner heading in, proven at the trip, and returned at a price that more than compensates for the concern over that seventh two starts back. Shay Farmer claims 5lb, lightening the load further at a track where the weight-for-age scale already favoured him at 134lb.

First Time is respected at 2/1, rated highest in the field at 92, but the Fahey yard is running at 2% over the past 14 days and that stat cannot be ignored. Haaderr dropped out to fourth last time and is on a slide. Suspicious Mindz is the angle.

Selection: Suspicious Mindz, 5/1 each-way, Boyle Sports, Betfred or LiveScore Bet

Today’s NAP

Suspicious Mindz — Winners Wear Skopes Menswear Handicap Stakes (4:15, Doncaster)
Odds: 5/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 5/1 Betfred, 5/1 LiveScore Bet)

A winner last time out over today’s trip and going, drawn perfectly in stall two, and available at a price that makes genuine each-way appeal in a six-runner handicap where the market leaders both carry serious doubts. Fahey’s runner at 2/1 is working against a trainer in poor form, while the selection is from an in-form yard and benefits from Shay Farmer’s 5lb claim. At 5/1 this is precisely the sort of handicap value that gets overlooked by punters chasing shorter prices.

Each-Way Recommended — 2 places at 1/4 odds