Down Royal, Saturday 20 June: Tips and Best Bets

Down Royal, Saturday 20 June: Tips and Best Bets

A seven-race card at Down Royal on soft ground, with cloud cover and no sign of the going drying out. Soft suits horses with a strong, galloping action and penalises anything that needs top of the ground to show its best. Keep that in mind throughout, because several of the market leaders today carry form that was achieved on much quicker surfaces. Three races offer a genuine betting angle, and one of them is the standout play of the afternoon.

2:06 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (1m2f½f)

A maiden with limited exposed form across most of the field, but one name stands out clearly. Camelot Queen (11/2, Boyle Sports) runs for Aidan O’Brien, and while the yard’s 14-day stats show 9 wins from 37 runners at a solid clip, the more relevant point is that the Ballydoyle operation continues to place its runners with purpose at provincial tracks. Camelot Queen has form figures of 6-36, which on the surface looks moderate, but a third from this draw in this company suggests she is finding her way and the step up to 1m2f on soft ground looks like exactly the right move. Gary Carroll partners the A. Oliver runner Charm of Venice at 12/1, and Carroll is a strong claimer here, but the Oliver yard has returned nothing from 10 runners over the past fortnight. Hard to get excited about that.

Camelot Queen each-way at 11/2 is the play, with three places on offer.

Selection: Camelot Queen, 11/2 (Boyle Sports/Betfred)

3:53 — BOYLE Sports Irish EBF Ulster Oaks Fillies Handicap (1m2½f)

Twelve runners in a fillies handicap on soft ground, which means the each-way market opens up properly. Several angles worth unpicking here.

Thrifty Of Digby Each-Way (11/2, Boyle Sports) is the selection. Scott McCullagh rides, and he is the standout jockey for this track in terms of value, hitting 18% here with an A/E of 1.25. That is a meaningful edge in a 12-runner handicap. The Jessica Harrington yard has also been productive in the last fortnight with seven winners from 64 runners across its two licence holders. Thrifty Of Digby has back-to-back wins in her recent form, figures of 3-0811, showing she has come right late in the season. The soft ground is not a concern for a mare who has won on testing surfaces before, and the weight she carries looks fair for her current mark. Four places at 1/5 odds with four places on offer makes this a strong each-way proposition.

The market leader Fiver Friday at 4/1 is respected but carries top weight and faces a hard task giving lumps of weight away in a competitive 12-runner field. Cromwell’s yard strike rate of 6/45 over the past two weeks is decent, but the weight and the market shortening suggest she is slightly overbet for what is a tough task.

Beauparc at 7/1 and Chica Guerrera at 8/1 are each-way alternatives if you want to spread the risk, but Thrifty Of Digby at 11/2 is the value play with McCullagh in the saddle.

Selection: Thrifty Of Digby, 11/2 each-way (Boyle Sports) — 4 places at 1/5 odds

4:33 — BOYLE Sports Ulster Derby Premier Handicap (1m5f)

The feature race of the afternoon and a proper betting heat. Ten three-year-old colts and geldings over 1m5f on soft, and the key question is who genuinely stays and who gets found out when the ground saps their energy in the closing stages.

Huff’n’puff Each-Way (8/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred) is the each-way play. Trained by Henry De Bromhead, who hits 21% at this track with an A/E of 1.10, which is the second-best trainer figure on the card and notably above expectation. Declan McDonogh is a capable partner and the horse’s recent form of 6-351 tells an interesting story. That last run, a win, suggests the penny has dropped for this gelding, and 1m5f on soft ground looks like the right conditions to build on that. De Bromhead’s yard is returning 4 winners from 38 runners in the last 14 days, which is a consistent level of output.

Harmani, the market leader at 11/4, is trained by G M Lyons, who has been in red-hot form with 5 winners from just 14 runners. The form figure of 27-321 shows progression and the horse clearly has ability. The concern is purely the price. At 11/4 in a 10-runner handicap, you are backing a three-year-old on soft ground in a competitive Premier Handicap at a price that leaves little room for things to go wrong.

Trojan Fighter at 10/1 also deserves a mention. W J Lee rides, and Lee is the most experienced jockey at this track with 37 wins from 232 rides. P Twomey trains, and that yard hits 33% at Down Royal, the best trainer figure on the entire card. The form of 4514 shows consistency at this level, and the soft ground should suit. At 10/1 on Betfred, there is a case for a small each-way play alongside your main selection.

Selection: Huff’n’puff, 8/1 each-way (Boyle Sports/Betfred) — 3 places at 1/5 odds

Today’s NAP

Thrifty Of Digby — BOYLE Sports Irish EBF Ulster Oaks Fillies Handicap (3:53, Down Royal)
Odds: 11/2 — Boyle Sports (others: 6/1 Betfred, 6/1 LiveScore Bet)

Back-to-back wins in recent form, soft ground no issue, and Scott McCullagh in the saddle with an A/E of 1.25 at this track. The Harrington yard has been firing on both licences this fortnight, and in a 12-runner handicap with four places on offer, the 11/2 available at Boyle Sports is the best price on the card for a horse that genuinely merits favouritism rather than mid-market status. Take the each-way terms and look for a big return.

Each-Way Recommended — 4 places at 1/5 odds