DP World Tour
Niemann’s Italian Job: Four-Shot Cushion at Halfway
Joaquin Niemann has turned Circolo Golf Torino into his personal fiefdom after 36 holes. The Chilean sits at fifteen under par, four shots clear of Angel Ayora in second place, with a field still very much in contention behind them. This is not a runaway yet, but Niemann’s position is commanding. The cut falls after round two, meaning the real tournament begins on Saturday morning with the leaderboard already taking shape.
Our Pre-Tournament Pick
Patrick Reed came to Italy at attractive odds but hasn’t made the expected impact through two rounds. Our pick sits five under par at the halfway stage, comfortably inside the cut line but adrift of the leaders. Reed is eight shots back of Niemann and would need a storming final thirty-six holes to mount a realistic challenge. The window for value has narrowed considerably, though the tournament remains very much alive.
Who’s in Contention
Niemann’s fourteen-shot advantage over the field feels overstated when you examine the chasing pack. Angel Ayora at thirteen under sits just four shots back and carries 10/1 odds at bet365, a reasonable price given the proximity to the lead. Eugenio Chacarra and Matt Wallace are bunched at eleven under, with Chacarra trading at 10/1 and Wallace a bigger price at 55/1 despite identical scoring.
The gap between first and fifth is just four shots. Tom Vaillant at eleven under at 25/1 represents solid value in a congested leaderboard. This is a wide-open affair masquerading as a coronation. Niemann will need to deliver under pressure, not just coast to the finish line.
Round 3 Betting Angles
Back the low-round specialists: Edoardo Molinari posted sixty-three in round one and sits at nine under. He has one foot through the cut door already and possesses the form to reel in the leaders if Niemann falters. Look for him as a round three bounce-back candidate at a fraction of the top three prices.
Niemann must stay composed: The Chilean’s lead is real but not insurmountable. A single poor round could crack the door open for Ayora or Chacarra. His 1.9/1 morning-line odds at bet365 reflect the favourite’s role, but this is not a banker when four players sit within four shots.
Value in the mid-field: Jorge Campillo and Angel Hidalgo Portillo both at nine under are close enough to sniff glory but far enough out that the bookmakers have aged them to 28/1 and 55/1 respectively. If Niemann stumbles on the weekend, this field will pivot quickly toward the chasing pack.
Our Updated Pick
Odds: 10/1 – bet365
Ayora sits just four shots behind Niemann at thirteen under par with two rounds to play. The Spanish player has shown consistent form in the scoring and remains inside the tournament’s momentum. At 10/1, he offers the best price among realistic contenders capable of hunting down the Chilean leader. Backing Ayora provides genuine value at this stage of the tournament.
Top 5 After Round 1
| Pos | Player | R1 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Niemann | 64 | -15 |
| 2 | Angel Ayora | 66 | -13 |
| 3 | Eugenio Chacarra | 66 | -11 |
| 4 | Matt Wallace | 69 | -11 |
| 5 | Tom Vaillant | 65 | -11 |
Like This? Get More Picks Free
Weekly free bets, odds picks and betting guides — straight to your inbox.