Epsom Downs, Thursday 9 July 2026: Tips and Analysis

Epsom Downs, Thursday 9 July 2026: Tips and Analysis

Good to firm ground and a sunny afternoon at Epsom. Three races on the card tonight worth getting stuck into, and the undulating Surrey track throws up its usual selection of course specialists and horses that simply won’t handle the camber. The key angles today revolve around horses in winning form, trainers who know this track, and a jockey booking that catches the eye in the opener.

6:05 — Betfred ‘Follow Us On X’ Handicap (1m4f)

Selection: Celestarak — 7/4 Boyle Sports / 7/4 Betfred / 13/8 LiveScore Bet

Five runners, short field, and one horse who stands out on straightforward grounds: Celestarak won last time out, tops the figures in this field, and has already proven he handles a mile and a half on good to firm ground. David Menuisier is one of the sharpest operators at this track with a 19% course strike rate and an A/E of 1.11, well above the market expectation. That matters more in a race like this than people give it credit for.

The first-time hood is a slight unknown, but yards that fit headgear on a horse coming off a win are usually doing it to sharpen the horse up rather than papering over cracks. Menuisier has sent out two winners from his last 15 runners in the past fortnight, so the yard is ticking along.

Darkest Red has hit the frame three times recently and will press, but three consecutive seconds without a win starting to look like a structural problem rather than bad luck. Celestarak is the bet at 7/4.

7:50 — Robert Dyas Handicap (6f)

Selection: Aberama Gold — 3/1 Boyle Sports / 3/1 Betfred / 3/1 LiveScore Bet

This looks the most competitive race on the card, but the data points clearly enough. Aberama Gold tops the figures, has winning form over today’s six furlongs on good to firm, and arrives fresh after 19 days off. The first-time visor is the key angle: at nine years old, this horse knows what he’s doing, and the headgear is more likely a trainer trying to sharpen his focus out of the stalls than a desperation measure.

David O’Meara has sent out seven winners from 55 runners in the last fortnight. That’s a decent enough clip for a northern yard sending runners south.

The obvious danger is Rage Of Thunder, trained by the Moore yard who post a solid 15% course win rate at Epsom. Tom Queally rides, and he’s one of the sharpest jockeys on this circuit with 15% wins here and an A/E of 1.11. Rage Of Thunder won five days ago and a quick turnaround from a yard in form demands respect. He’s the one to beat.

George Scott’s Acclaimed Freedom fits the profile too: proven at the trip on this going, won earlier in this sequence, but five days between runs with first-time cheekpieces is a gamble on him taking to the gear.

Aberama Gold at 3/1 is the call. If you want a saver, Rage Of Thunder at 5/2 is a legitimate option.

6:40 — Betfred EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (7f)

Selection: Eabha — 11/10 Boyle Sports / 11/10 Betfred / 11/10 LiveScore Bet

Two-year-old fillies maiden, and most of this field are either debut runners or have one run to their name. Eabha is the most exposed of the market leaders, having finished third on both her starts. Consistency at this early stage in a filly’s career is worth more than the bare price suggests.

The booking of Callum Hutchinson is a significant factor. He carries a 22% win rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.72, making him far and away the most effective jockey at this track on today’s card. Eve Johnson Houghton also hits at 16% course winners, and her yard has sent out six winners from 32 runners over the last fortnight. Both metrics are pointing in the same direction.

Minnal is the market rival at 6/4, trained by David Simcock. She ran sixth on debut and Simcock’s two-year-olds often improve sharply, but Eabha’s placed consistency edges it here. The price has firmed through the day, and rightly so.

This is an odds-on selection, so no each-way case to make. Win only at 11/10.

Today’s NAP

Celestarak — Betfred ‘Follow Us On X’ Handicap (6:05, Epsom Downs)
Odds: 7/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 7/4 Betfred, 13/8 LiveScore Bet)

Won last time out over the same trip on identical going, tops the form figures in a five-runner field, and the yard stat of 19% course wins for Menuisier at Epsom is the kind of number that gets you on the right side of the draw. The first-time hood on a winner adds intrigue rather than concern. This is a horse who is in form, fit, and suits the conditions. 7/4 represents solid value in what is, frankly, a vulnerable small field.