Epsom Derby Day 2026: Tips, Angles and a NAP Worth Backing

Epsom Derby Day 2026: Tips, Angles and a NAP Worth Backing

Derby Day at Epsom. The rain has been coming down in Surrey, and the ground is riding Good to Soft. That changes the complexion of every race on the card. Horses who’ve shown form on cut in the ground move up the pecking order; anything with questions to answer on soft surfaces needs reassessing. Three Group 1s headline a card that demands serious attention. Here are the races that matter most.

2:40 — Coolmore Coronation Cup (Group 1, 1m4f)

Six runners, but this is really a three-horse race with a compelling subplot. Calandagan is the highest-rated horse in the world on current figures and carries an unbeaten run of five straight Group 1s into this. The caveat is right there in the spotlight data: connections have flagged ground concerns, and with rain on the track, evens is not the price to be taking if there’s any doubt about whether he even lines up. Respect, but not at that price on this ground.

Jan Brueghel (Ryan Moore, A P O’Brien) is the selection at 11/4 with both Boyle Sports and Betfred. The reigning Coronation Cup winner, he beat Calandagan in this exact race 12 months ago on Good to Soft ground. His Chester reappearance in the Ormonde confirmed he is trained to the minute, and the soft ground argument that plagued his King George defeat does not apply here. The going suits. The race suits. Aidan O’Brien’s yard is firing (11 winners from 39 runners in the last 14 days), and Ryan Moore knows every inch of this course. The pace scenario should also be far more genuine than at Chester last summer, which will suit a horse who wants to gallop.

Convergent (13/2, Boyle Sports) ran in the same Chester race as Lambourn and is worth including for each-way purposes. Karl Burke has him in career-best form, and a near 5-length improvement from that Listed Newbury win is entirely plausible stepping back into Group 1 company. The only concern is how high his ceiling actually is.

Selection: Jan Brueghel (11/4, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

1:30 — Betfred Tattenham Corner Stakes (Group 3, 7f)

Eight runners, tight form lines, and a race where the ground holds the key. Never So Brave is odds-on and holds leading claims if everything clicks, but he pulled hard on his reappearance at Sandown and his form on soft ground is mixed. At 5/4, there is no margin for error with that doubt hanging over him.

The angle here is Ten Bob Tony at 6/1 (Boyle Sports/Betfred). He won this race 12 months ago in its previous incarnation at Haydock, and that form is solid. He lost a shoe at Haydock last time out, which explains the defeat to a degree, and his reappearance at the Curragh before that was an encouraging fourth on soft to heavy ground. He then posted a fine third in the Group 1 Foret at Longchamp last October on very soft ground. The going today suits him. Ed Walker has been in decent form (7 from 31 in 14 days), and defending this title at 6/1 appeals as a value play in a race where the favourite is fragile.

Poet Master Each-Way (10/1, Boyle Sports) is worth a small each-way interest. Sam James is a Epsom course specialist with a 25% strike rate and an A/E of 2.19, the best figures of any jockey at the track. Poet Master won a Group 2 at the Curragh over 7f and has been placed in two Group races at this trip since. If he finds his best form, 10/1 is a generous price for place money in a race with three-place terms.

Selection: Ten Bob Tony (6/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

4:00 — Betfred Derby (Group 1, 1m4f)

The race of the year. Fourteen runners, a million pounds in prize money, and a course that punishes any horse not truly staying the trip. The rain has made the ground more testing, which is the most significant factor when assessing the market.

Benvenuto Cellini is the 9/4 favourite with both Betfred and LiveScore Bet. The Frankel colt is a genuinely imposing talent. His Chester Vase win was dominant, his long-striding action looks tailor-made for the Epsom cambers, and Ryan Moore riding for O’Brien in the Derby needs no further introduction. The single concern is his Doncaster Futurity third on heavy ground, which suggests the extreme end of soft is not his ideal terrain. Good to Soft is meaningfully different from heavy, however, and if this ground is on the better side of that description, he goes very close.

The each-way angle that genuinely interests me is Ancient Egypt Each-Way at 22/1 (all boards). The Frankel colt cost 1.1 million guineas as a yearling, all four of his races have been on Good to Firm ground which raises a question, but his return at Newmarket was authoritative at 1m2f and everything about his pedigree says 1m4f will unlock more. Charlie Johnston has been quietly consistent (6 from 52 in 14 days), David Egan is a capable pilot at this level, and 22/1 with four places at 1/5 odds means the each-way return has genuine value. He doesn’t need to beat Benvenuto Cellini to pay out.

Bay Of Brilliance at 14/1 (Boyle Sports/Betfred) is another worth a mention. Ralph Beckett has a healthy 18% course record at Epsom (A/E: 1.07), and Bay Of Brilliance pushed Maltese Cross hard in the Lingfield Derby Trial on first-time-out. That was on Good to Firm, but his maiden win at Goodwood came on soft ground. Improvement expected, and Beckett knows how to place a horse for this race.

The selection, however, is Benvenuto Cellini. The ground question is real but manageable at Good to Soft. His form is top of the pile, his trainer and jockey combination is the gold standard for this race, and a horse of this stride and strength should relish getting his head down on a true test of stamina at Epsom.

Selection: Benvenuto Cellini (9/4, Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

Each-Way: Ancient Egypt (22/1, all boards) — 4 places, 1/5 odds

Today’s NAP

Jan Brueghel — Coolmore Coronation Cup (2:40, Epsom)
Odds: 11/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/4 Betfred, 11/4 LiveScore Bet)

The reigning Coronation Cup champion returning to the scene of his finest hour, in near-identical ground conditions to when he beat the world’s top-rated horse 12 months ago. His Chester reappearance was a clean bill of health, Ryan Moore is a cut above at Epsom on big days, and O’Brien’s yard is in sharp form. Calandagan at evens on soft ground with declared doubts about his willingness to run is the one scenario that makes Jan Brueghel look even more attractive. The 11/4 is a fair price for a horse that has already proven he can win this race, on this track, in these conditions.