Epsom, Thursday 30 July: Tips and Selections

Epsom, Thursday 30 July: Tips and Selections

A six-race card at Epsom on good to firm ground, and the course stats are doing some heavy lifting tonight. Callum Hutchinson wins at 32% here with an A/E of 2.07, Warren Fentiman at 31% with an A/E of 2.34, and John and Thady Gosden bang in winners at a 29% clip with an A/E well above par. Those numbers matter on a card like this, where several races look genuinely open. Three races are featured below, starting with the first race off.

7:15 — Irish EBF Fifinella Fillies’ Handicap Stakes (1m½f)

Small field of four, but plenty to argue about. Trio is the market leader at 6/4 and arrives here on the back of a win, with form over this trip and today’s going. That all checks out. But at 6/4 in a four-runner field, you’re being asked to lay a lot of faith on one recent win holding up under 129lbs, and Eve Johnson Houghton’s yard has been cold recently, striking at just 3/31 over the last fortnight.

The selection is Celestra at 5/1 with Boyle Sports and Betfred. John and Thady Gosden are operating at 7/19 in the last 14 days, a yard in full flow, and their course record at Epsom is outstanding. Celestra won two starts back, was placed three starts back, and this trip and going are confirmed positives. Our rating of 88 marks her clear of the field on ability, and at 5/1 against a market leader who has her own questions to answer, the value points firmly this way. Kieran O’Neill takes the ride and has no issues at this level. Back her to win.

6:05 — Spillers EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (7f)

Nine runners, juveniles, and the novice uncertainty that comes with them. Out Of This World is the 13/8 favourite under Rob Hornby for James Tate, a trainer who fires in at 21% at this track. A form figure of 1-4 reads well enough, but the yard has been modest in the last 14 days at 1/14, and 13/8 asks you to take that on trust.

The angle here is Otis Bay Each-Way at 7/1 with Boyle Sports and Betfred. Harry Eustace is one of the sharpest operators at this course, winning at 21% with an A/E of 1.43 in the trainer stats. The yard has been in decent nick at 3/12 over the past fortnight. Jack Nicholls rides, who claims 3lbs and gets the weight advantage. With three places on offer at 1/5 odds in a nine-runner field and a trainer who clearly knows how to place a horse at Epsom, 7/1 each-way looks plenty big enough for a lightly-raced juvenile from a handler worth following here.

Benefacta at 7/2 is interesting for Richard Hughes (5/26 in form), and Camarda Rc at 4/1 for Richard Hannon (9/49, a yard that rarely runs them without a chance) gives the race depth. But the each-way play is Otis Bay.

5:30 — Spillers Future Champions Apprentice Handicap Stakes (1m2f)

Six runners over a mile and two furlongs, and the jockey stats are the story here. Warren Fentiman, who wins at a staggering 31% at Epsom with an A/E of 2.34, takes the mount on Golden Circet at 3/1 with Boyle Sports and Betfred. Jim and Suzi Best have had a quiet recent spell at 0/6 in 14 days, but the jockey booking at this specific track overrides yard form. Fentiman clearly suits Epsom’s unique contours, and that A/E of 2.34 tells you punters are repeatedly underestimating his horses here.

Golden Circet has form figures of 3-3554, placed three times in recent starts, which at least confirms he runs his races. The trip and going are suitable. Qitaal is rated highest on figures and has a string of placings, but six starts without a win is a concern, and Charlie Johnston’s yard is having a difficult spell at 3/43. At 3/1, Golden Circet with Fentiman in the saddle at a track where the jockey simply delivers, this is a play on angle over raw form.

Magical Merlin Each-Way at 4/1 deserves a mention. Twice placed, distance and going experience confirmed, and the 59-day break is the only hesitation. Worth a small each-way interest at those odds given the placing terms.

Today’s NAP

Celestra — Irish EBF Fifinella Fillies’ Handicap Stakes (7:15, Epsom)
Odds: 5/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 5/1 Betfred, 9/2 LiveScore Bet)

John and Thady Gosden are running at 7/19 in the last fortnight and their Epsom record stands up to scrutiny at 29% wins with an A/E of 1.15. Celestra’s rating of 88 marks her clear of a modest four-runner field, she has the trip and today’s good to firm ground covered, and 5/1 against a 6/4 favourite from a cold yard looks like genuine value in a race the Gosden operation should be targeting seriously.