Fakenham, Sunday 31 May: Racing Tips and Best Bets

Fakenham, Sunday 31 May: Racing Tips and Best Bets

A quiet Sunday afternoon at Fakenham, with just three races to work through on a card that suits the regulars who know this tight, idiosyncratic track. Good ground throughout is a genuine leveller here, and the trainer and jockey stats at this course matter more than most. Stuart Edmunds (32% strike rate, A/E of 1.38) and Lucy Wadham (27%, A/E 1.19) are the names to follow, while jockey Bryan Carver’s A/E of 1.41 at this course suggests he punches well above his billing when he rolls up here.

Three races, three selections. Here is how it reads.

3:05 — Bruce Towers & Sons Mechanical Engineers Mares’ Maiden Hurdle (2m, Good)

Five runners, but this shapes up as a straight fight between Alibey and Dancing Dame, with the latter the more interesting proposition at the prices.

Dancing Dame is selected at 5/6 (Boyle Sports, Betfred). The seven-year-old’s Irish record looks ugly on paper, but strip it back and the relevant line is the last one: a genuinely eyecatching sixth of 19 in a strong Naas maiden (2m, soft to heavy) at 200/1 in December. She was doing her best work late that day against much better company than she faces here. James Owen’s yard has a 25% strike rate at Fakenham and is noted for doing well with new recruits from outside. The switch to good ground is not a concern given that Naas run came on soft to heavy and she clearly stayed on regardless.

Never Told Me (11/2) is worth a second look. Three promising runs on good ground last summer, a wind operation since, and the hood coming off today. Fergal O’Brien’s string has been quiet lately but the profile of this mare suggests improvement is coming. Each-way players in a bigger field might consider her, but with only five runners the places are less generous and the win market is the place to be.

Alibey at 11/8 is the obvious favourite case but the free-going tendency is a real concern in a 2m race on good ground, and her form in maidens off a handicap mark is a slightly different ask. Dancing Dame represents better value.

Selection: Dancing Dame (5/6, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

4:07 — 1st The Queens’ Dragoon Guards Handicap Hurdle (2m, Good, 4 runners)

The most competitive race on the card on paper, but the angles narrow it down sharply.

Hello Sweety is the selection at 11/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred). Stuart Edmunds has a 32% win rate at Fakenham with an A/E of 1.38, the best of any trainer on this card, and he is 1/2 over the last 14 days in decent form. Charlie Hammond (23% at Fakenham, A/E 1.17) takes the ride. Two course and distance wins last season, granted on slightly easier ground, but both by wide margins. She is a free-going front-runner who sets her own pace here, which at a track where you can dictate terms from the front is a significant advantage. The Huntingdon run where she went off too hard can be put aside, and the Flat run 24 days ago was a useful prep. The concern is whether her mark has caught up with her, but in a field of four this is the horse who knows the track and has the trainer stats to back the selection.

Ambiente Friendly (5/4) is the obvious danger. James Owen’s runner has undeniable class, and a novice handicap at Sandown last month was a solid effort. But the free-racing habits and a yard that is 6/53 over the last 14 days (not inspiring) keeps the confidence in check at a short price. Blackwater Lilly (6/1) is interesting with the first-time visor and had jumping issues last time that cost her, but the stable switch and new headgear make her harder to assess. An Bradan Feasa (11/4) ran poorly at Fakenham before, which is the single biggest flag in a small field.

Selection: Hello Sweety (11/4, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

4:37 — Prince Of Wales Cup Handicap Chase (2m5f, Good, 5 runners)

Hurricane Bay is the selection at 9/4 (Boyle Sports, Betfred). The ten-year-old won this race in 2025 and comes back here 5lb lower than the mark he carried to that victory. Lucy Wadham has a 27% strike rate at Fakenham with an A/E of 1.19, and Tom Cannon is fourth on the course jockey list at 21% (100 rides, A/E 0.97). The Huntingdon win this month on good ground was in pretty good style, and even after a 5lb rise the handicapper has left him with a workable mark. Last season was poor, but the form this spring reads like a horse who has rediscovered some enthusiasm.

Coastguard Station (10/3) has the course winner angle too, good ground suits, and Henry Oliver’s 27% at Fakenham is the second-best trainer stat on this card. The Aintree fourth 16 days ago was a solid effort. This is genuinely tight, and Coastguard Station is a serious alternative, particularly for those who prefer the fresher horse. But Hurricane Bay at a shorter price with the course form from this exact race 12 months ago, and still favourably weighted, gets the nod.

Nickelforce (11/4) is on a tough mark and Ben Case’s recent yard form is good, but a third at Uttoxeter last time suggests he is not quite there yet. Tommy Cullen (11/4) has shown little lately and Matt Crawley’s stable is 0/5 in the last fortnight. No But I Will (10/1) was tailed off at Market Rasen last month and is hard to support.

Selection: Hurricane Bay (9/4, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

Today’s NAP

Hello Sweety — 1st The Queens’ Dragoon Guards Handicap Hurdle (4:07, Fakenham)
Odds: 11/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/4 Betfred, 5/2 LiveScore Bet)

Stuart Edmunds has the best trainer stats of anyone on this card at Fakenham, sitting at 32% wins and an A/E of 1.38, and Charlie Hammond on board adds another layer of course confidence. Hello Sweety has won this track and trip twice before, is drawn to make the running, and a sound Flat prep 24 days ago suggests she is tuned up. In a four-runner field where the favourite races too freely and the form horse ran poorly at this course last time, the course and distance double is the edge that makes 11/4 worth taking.