FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Tips | August 2026

PGA Tour

The FedEx Cup playoffs arrive at TPC Southwind this week, where the opening leg of golf’s postseason has consistently served up drama and separated pretenders from contenders. This Memphis venue demands precision iron play and steady putting on Bermuda surfaces that can punish loose approaches. With Justin Rose defending the title he claimed twelve months ago, the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship promises the usual blend of elite ball-striking and nerve under pressure that defines playoff golf.

Outright Favourites

The market has struggled to identify clear favourites this week, and our analysis suggests the bookmakers have got this one badly wrong. Cameron Young sits at a frankly absurd 5000/1 with bet365, despite BonusDevil’s ratings giving him a 9.6% win probability. That’s 9/1 implied odds, making the 5000/1 available one of the most mispriced golf markets we’ve seen this season. Young’s ball-striking metrics have been superb, and while we’d never recommend 5000/1 as a sensible price, the value here is undeniable. Something appears off with the market pricing, and sharper bettors will have noted the discrepancy.

Jackson Koivun represents a more orthodox each-way proposition at 200/1 with bet365. We have him at 3.9% to win, around 24/1 fair value, which makes the triple-figure price attractive with standard 1/5 odds, five places terms. His strokes-gained consistency has impressed, and TPC Southwind’s demand for accuracy over power should suit his methodical game.

Hideki Matsuyama completes the trio of most likely winners according to our numbers. At 90/1 with bet365 (125/1 Bovada, 120.5/1 BetCRIS), the Japanese star offers genuine each-way interest. Our 3.7% win probability translates to roughly 26/1 implied, so nearly four times that price represents clear value. Matsuyama’s iron play has been quietly excellent, posting positive strokes-gained approach figures that align perfectly with Southwind’s demands. The 25% top-10 probability adds further appeal for each-way backers. Each-Way

Each-Way Value

Justin Thomas has drifted alarmingly to 600/1 with bet365, a price that looks exploitable given our 2.8% win assessment. That’s 35/1 fair odds, meaning you’re getting seventeen times the value if our ratings hold. Thomas remains one of the tour’s premier iron players, and while recent form hasn’t matched his peak years, class doesn’t evaporate overnight. At 600/1 each-way, you’re essentially getting paid handsomely for a top-five finish from a player with a 71% make-cut probability and 20% chance of cracking the top ten. The risk-reward tilts heavily in the punter’s favour. Each-Way

Aaron Rai at 5000/1 (bet365, matched by DraftKings with 4000/1 at Caesars) presents another eye-catching anomaly. Our model rates him 38/1, giving him a 2.6% win chance and 21% top-10 probability. The Englishman’s steady accumulation of strokes-gained across all categories makes him a genuine playoff threat, particularly on a course that rewards consistency over heroics. With a 74% cut probability, he’s firmly in the “likely to feature” category, making five-figure odds border on insulting. Each-Way

Doug Ghim rounds out the value plays at 1500/1 with bet365. We assess him at 40/1 true odds, a 2.4% win chance that suggests the market has badly underestimated his credentials. His strokes-gained profile fits Southwind’s tree-lined demands, and the 19% top-10 likelihood means each-way returns come into play more often than the odds imply.

Players to Watch

Justin Rose returns as defending champion, bringing the confidence of a player who solved Southwind’s puzzles last August. Course form matters in golf, and Rose’s combination of controlled ball-flight and Bermuda putting touch could feature prominently again.

Tom Kim has been backed into 3.2/1 with bet365, though our 2.3% win probability (43/1 implied) suggests the market has overreacted to recent headlines. The Korean’s aggressive style can produce fireworks, but TPC Southwind tends to punish the wild swings that come with his attacking mentality. There’s a bet here, but not at current odds.

Sungjae Im appears at 1000/1 with Betway, a price that warrants attention given his renowned iron play. Our 2.0% assessment puts him around 48/1 fair value, making the four-figure odds worth a speculative each-way investment for those chasing the long-range knockout.

Our Pick