Ffos Las, Wednesday 20 May: Tips and Selections

Ffos Las, Wednesday 20 May: Tips and Selections

A six-race card at Ffos Las under soft ground and showers, and while the fields are small, there are some genuinely interesting angles to unpick. The Welsh track rewards horses that handle cut in the ground, and today’s conditions will sort them out quickly. Three races stand out for betting purposes.

2:50 — Mortal Bunny Rum Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)

Selection: Lion Of The Desert (7/2, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

Grace Harris has her yard in decent nick at 2/12 over the last fortnight, and Lion Of The Desert is the standout here on course form alone. This 6yo has gone back-to-back in course handicaps at Ffos Las, winning nicely last time on a track he clearly relishes. Yes, he goes up another 5lb, but course specialists at tracks like this consistently outperform their handicap mark, and soft ground isn’t a dealbreaker given he’s placed on it before.

Lemon Leaf has to be respected. Olly Murphy’s yard is flying (12/41 in 14 days, which is a serious strike rate for a conditional), and that C&D win was convincing enough to suggest the 10lb rise might not fully contain him. But he’s jumping into the unknown on this ground and that huge penalty makes life hard. Lion Of The Desert is the safer bet with the course-and-distance edge.

Red Rubio is interesting on the longer trip given his pointing background, but this is only his second hurdles start and the form is unproven at this level.

3:20 — Happy 1st Birthday Donnacha Fenelon Novices’ Hurdle (2m)

Selection: The Flaggy Shore (7/4, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

On paper this is a two-horse race between The Flaggy Shore and One Knight, and the market agrees. The Flaggy Shore is the pick at the prices. A point winner who then bolted up in a Warwick bumper by seven lengths, she subsequently ran in two Listed bumpers and held her own in that company, finishing second on the first occasion. That background screams a horse with a serious ceiling, and she drops back into a modest novice hurdle for her jumping debut.

One Knight is fair value at evens after disappointing in that Grade 2 at the Grand National meeting. Emma Lavelle’s yard is in form (2/9 last 14 days) and the hurdling debut is intriguing, but The Flaggy Shore’s form in Listed company puts her in a different category to everything else on this card.

Fiskardo has a long absence to overcome and the soft ground is a question mark coming back from a bumper win on good. The 80/1 shots can be ignored entirely.

4:20 — Francky Du Berlais Novices’ Handicap Chase (3m)

Selection: Loki’s Mischief (6/4, Boyle Sports/Betfred)

Chester Williams had a 100 per cent strike rate in the last 14 days (1/1) and Loki’s Mischief is coming into this off a comfortable win at this track two weeks ago over 2m5f, described as doing it fairly comfortably. The step up to 3m looks ideal given he promises to stay the trip, and the form note explicitly says he handles softer ground, which matters enormously today.

Jack’s Jury is the clear threat and the form reversal angle is legitimate. He was beaten less than four lengths by Loki’s Mischief over 2m5f here and is now 7lb better off with the winner. Barry John Murphy’s yard is cold (0/8 last 14 days), though, and that weight-for-age turnaround doesn’t always play out the way the form book suggests on significantly softer ground.

Hell Hound is a concern. His win came on good ground at Southwell and the data explicitly flags that too much rain is a worry. With soft conditions today, he’s best left alone despite his 5/4 market position. The ground alone makes Loki’s Mischief the sensible call.

Today’s NAP