Galway Festival Eve: Monday Tips, July 27

Galway Festival Eve: Monday Tips, July 27

Glorious Goodwood kicks off tomorrow, but before the Sussex crowds pour in, Galway serves up a cracking Monday card with three featured races worth your attention. Good to Yielding going suits a range of profiles, and with Joseph Patrick O’Brien’s yard firing at a 31% strike rate over the last fortnight, his runners demand respect throughout the card. The Connacht Hotel Handicap is the headline act: 23 runners, five places, and a field full of angles.

5:10 Galmont Hotel & The Galway Bay Hotel Novice Hurdle (2m½f, Hurdle)

Carmel’s Phoenix is the short-priced favourite on the back of a debut win, trained by Mark Fahey and priced at 2/1. One run, one win is hard to oppose at face value, but this is a novice hurdle with genuine unknowns throughout the field, and the price gives you next to nothing in return for the risk.

The selection here is Arouet, trained by P Twomey and ridden by Daniel King, available at 4/1 with Boyle Sports. Twomey’s record at Galway is eye-catching: 21% winners from 29 runners with an A/E of 1.29, meaning the yard genuinely outperforms market expectations at this track. Arouet has won on his most recent start and shapes like a horse on the upgrade. The form reads 3-1, which is exactly what you want in a novice hurdler, a runner getting better with racing rather than flatlining. Good to Yielding is no obstacle.

Mino Des Fottes at 13/2 deserves a mention. Jack Kennedy partners him for Gordon Elliott, and the 5202-1 record over hurdles shows he has been learning his craft and winning. But Twomey’s course edge and Arouet’s upward trajectory tip the balance.

6:10 Eventus Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden (7f, Flat)

Eight runners, minimum form to go on, and One Number at 6/5 is the market leader for Joseph Patrick O’Brien. Dylan Browne McMonagle is booked, the form reads 203, and the yard is absolutely smoking at the moment. There is not much wrong with that case at all.

But the value bet here is Trean, trained by P Twomey and ridden by W J Lee, available at 11/2 with Boyle Sports. Twomey’s A/E of 1.29 at Galway means his runners consistently beat their market price, and Trean’s form of 30 in two starts shows a horse that has placed already and is learning. A 7f maiden on good to yielding ground, at a course where Twomey’s runners outperform, is precisely where you want to be finding value against a market-leader at 6/5.

Our Boy Bailey at 9/2 for Jessica Harrington (form: 20) is also a fair each-way shout in a small field, but with only three places and eight runners, the each-way terms are tight enough to make the win market the priority.

6:40 Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap (2m1f, Flat, 23 runners)

This is the race of the day, and it rewards careful reading. Twenty-three runners, five places, good to yielding ground, and a field full of amateur riders in what is a qualifier race. The JO’Brien yard has no fewer than four runners, which can complicate matters, but one stands above the rest.

Lark In The Mornin Each-Way, ridden by Mr D P Davis (7) and trained by Joseph Patrick O’Brien, is available at 11/1 with Boyle Sports. The profile is as clean as you will find in a 23-runner handicap: winner last time out, three wins from his last five starts, second on the figures in a field of 23, and a yard running at 31% over the last fortnight. He has run over today’s going before and stays this trip. The only small query is a modest speed figure, but over 2m1f in a Galway handicap, tactical speed matters less than stamina and fitness, and he has both in abundance.

Yashin at 50/1 tops the figures on 101 with the highest speed figure in the field, but his form reads 606-00, and a trainer with 0 wins from 4 in the last fortnight is not the backstory you want with your each-way punt. A speculative saver at best.

Comfort Zone (11/1 to 9/1) for JO’Brien also makes sense on figures, rated 97 with the fastest speed figure in the field at 94, but the pulled-up run in recent form is too much to ignore completely at these prices. Granite Bay at 10/1 is an honest sort who has placed three times in five starts and stays the trip, worth a small each-way interest as a backup.

Five places at 1/5 odds makes the each-way case for Lark In The Mornin compelling. In a field this big, a horse with his profile at double-figure odds is the exact spot to invest.

Today’s NAP

Lark In The Mornin — Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap (6:40, Galway)
Odds: 11/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 11/1 LiveScore Bet)

Winner last time out, three from five in recent form, second on the figures in a 23-runner field, and trained by a yard running at 31% over the last fortnight. Good to yielding is confirmed suitable, the trip is proven, and 11/1 in a race this competitive is the sort of price that makes the each-way terms genuinely attractive with five places on offer.

Each-Way Recommended — 5 places at 1/5 odds