Gowran Park Tips: Wednesday, August 12

Gowran Park Tips: Wednesday, August 12

Gowran Park puts on an eight-race card on Good to Firm ground, and the going suits quick, handy types throughout. Three featured races stand out for value: the Listed Hurry Harriet Stakes, the 19-runner juvenile maiden, and the seven-runner handicap. Trainer stats are worth leaning on here. A P O’Brien’s yard is firing at 25% over the last fortnight with ten winners from forty runners, and that form warrants serious respect when his horses carry live claims. J P Murtagh at 18% course strike rate with an A/E of 1.11 is also a name to note. Let’s get into it.

3:52 Darley Irish EBF Hurry Harriet Stakes (Listed, 1m1½f)

Selection: Skydance (2/1, Boyle Sports / Betfred / LiveScore Bet)

Skydance is the pick here and it is not a complicated case. W J Lee partners a filly who won two starts back and franked that form with a third last time out. She arrives at Gowran on just 18 days’ rest, sharp and fit, with confirmed experience of today’s trip and Good to Firm conditions. Trainer W McCreery has been in decent nick recently at 3 from 13 over the last fortnight, a 23% strike rate that suggests the yard is ticking over nicely. Off 127lb as a three-year-old, she gets the weight allowance that matters in this mixed-age Listed contest.

The main market rivals are Minerva and Lemsairbat. Minerva has been off for 109 days and her return to peak fitness is an assumption rather than a fact. Lemsairbat remains winless in five starts despite consistent placing, and Dylan Browne McMonagle’s 17% course record here has an A/E of only 0.79, suggesting he has a habit of going off too short at Gowran. Skydance at the even-money to 2/1 range is the correct pick at these prices.

Classiest is intriguing for the O’Brien yard given their current form, but 289 days off the track is too much to take on trust in a Listed race.

2:52 Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (7f, 19 runners)

Selection: This That Each-Way (5/1, Boyle Sports / Betfred / LiveScore Bet)

Nineteen runners in a juvenile maiden is a lottery to some extent, but Colin Keane riding for G M Lyons is not a combination to dismiss lightly. Lyons hits at 16% course strike rate at Gowran and the yard has had one winner from twelve runners in the last fortnight. This That showed a placed effort last time out and Keane at 16% here with an A/E of 0.98 is a reliable course partner. In a field this big, three places at 1/5 odds makes the each-way play compulsory at 5/1.

Citrus Springs at 11/4 is the obvious favourite with J P O’Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle, but the price is short for a horse that has shown a six and a two from two starts. Value lies elsewhere. Just One Show at 9/2 is also interesting with a debut second on the form card, but W J Lee has no strong course angle here.

This That at 5/1 each-way in a 19-runner maiden represents exactly the kind of bet this card deserves.

3:22 Final Furlong Podcast with 1xBet Handicap (7f, 7 runners)

Selection: Alfred Tennyson (3/1, Boyle Sports / LiveScore Bet)

Small field, so no each-way angle here. Alfred Tennyson is the straightforward call. He won last time out, has proven himself over today’s trip on going like this, and Chris Hayes is a competent partner for the Denis Hogan yard. The five-day turnaround is the only real concern, but Hogan has two from 33 over the last fortnight and is not a trainer who runs horses for fun. When they turn up, they tend to be ready.

Pretty Omagh Girl is unplaced on her most recent start and was beaten in five of her last six outings. Little Empire tops the ratings but has never won and his sixth last time out was flat. Alfred Tennyson carrying 140lb is not ideal, but a winner who goes right-handed on fast ground with recent race fitness is the asset in this seven-runner field.

Today’s NAP

Skydance — Darley Irish EBF Hurry Harriet Stakes (15:52, Gowran Park)
Odds: 2/1 — Boyle Sports (others: 2/1 Betfred, 2/1 LiveScore Bet)

Skydance arrives fit on an 18-day turnaround, has won at this trip on Good to Firm ground, and backed that form with a placed effort last time. McCreery’s yard is in solid form at 23% over the last fortnight, and the filly’s 127lb weight claim over older rivals in a mixed-age Listed race is a genuine advantage. At 2/1 in a race where the market leaders carry question marks over fitness and consistency, this is the value call of the day at Gowran.