Hexham, Sunday 21 June: Tips and Best Bets

Hexham, Sunday 21 June: Tips and Best Bets

A three-race focus at Hexham today, with good ground suiting flat-travelling types and the Northumberland track throwing up its usual mix of honest handicap chasing and competitive hurdling. The card is modest in terms of prize money but there are angles worth playing, particularly when the trainer and jockey course stats point in one direction and the form book backs it up.

3:13 — Matfen Hall Hotel Handicap Chase (1m7½f)

Selection: Conquer The Breeze Each-Way at 3/1 (Boyle Sports / Betfred)

Adam Nicol runs at 23% winners at this track with an A/E of 1.21, which tells you his runners arrive here fit and primed rather than just making up numbers. Conquer The Breeze comes into this off the back of four wins from his last four completed starts before that final-form “4”, and the key word there is completed. This horse jumps and travels, and at 1m7½f on good ground he is right in his comfort zone.

Ryan Mania takes the ride. He knows this track intimately and has the experience to pace a horse through a small-field chase without panic. The Cobbler’s Boy at 7/4 is predictably short given Dan Skelton’s big-race record and Harry Skelton’s 35% strike rate here, but at that price in a seven-runner handicap chase, you are giving up all the value. Kientzheim at 10/3 is interesting on her recent second, but the yard is ice cold right now at 1 from 20 over 14 days.

Conquer The Breeze at 3/1 with each-way terms of two places at 1/4 odds is a solid position in a race where the Skelton favourite can get beaten.

3:43 — Jethro’s Cafe Of Haltwhistle Handicap Hurdle (2m)

Selection: High Dancer at 11/4 (Boyle Sports / LiveScore Bet)

Nicky Richards has a 23% win rate at Hexham from a massive 338 runners, and his record here over time is that of a trainer who targets this track with horses ready to run well. Danny McMenamin is the go-to Hexham jockey with 35 wins here from 225 rides and a positive A/E of 1.10, meaning Richards and McMenamin combining on a horse is a combination worth highlighting on this card.

High Dancer’s form reads 4203-2, and that placed run last time out is the key line. He went close, he handles a flat galloping track, and the step back up to 2m on good ground looks straightforward for him. At 11/4 in a five-runner field he is not a certainty, but the trainer-jockey combo on this track is a bankable angle and the recent form justifies the faith.

Perseus Way at evens is too short to recommend in a handicap hurdle. Tristan Davidson’s yard is in form at 3 from 14 over the past fortnight, but you cannot take evens about a horse that needs to produce a career-best under top weight. Pass.

4:13 — Tynedale Function Suite Handicap Chase (2m4f)

Selection: Passengerontheship at 15/8 (Boyle Sports / Betfred)

Three wins from three completed starts in his most recent run of form, the “6-P111” line does the talking here. This is a horse who has clicked into gear and is running with real confidence. Sam England has had four winners from 15 runners in the past 14 days, which is a yard firing at a healthy clip, and Jonathan England’s 15% course strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.01 at Hexham tells you the combination works at this venue.

Laffer Curve at 6/4 is the obvious market rival, and Harry Skelton’s course record gives the Skelton camp every right to be favourite. But the mare’s form reads 4334-2, which is fine without being electric, and at 6/4 you need her to win rather than just run respectably. Passengerontheship at 15/8 with three wins on the spin is the better-value side of the argument.

Ostend at 9/4 is worth a mention given Mickey Bowen’s 36% course record, the best trainer stat on the whole card, but the horse’s recent form of /334-2 suggests he finds one or two too good when it matters.

Today’s NAP

Passengerontheship — Tynedale Function Suite Handicap Chase (4:13, Hexham)
Odds: 15/8 — Boyle Sports (others: 15/8 Betfred, 7/4 LiveScore Bet)

Three wins on the spin tells its own story. The England yard is operating at a strong rate over the past fortnight, Jonathan England has a course record that holds up under scrutiny, and at 2m4f on good ground this horse arrives in a purple patch of form that the handicapper has not yet had time to clamp down on. At 15/8, he is priced shorter than I would ideally like for a NAP, but the combination of in-form yard, positive jockey course stats, and a sequence of wins rather than near-misses makes him the standout selection on the card.