Indianapolis Betting Tips | August 2026

LIV Golf

The LIV Golf circus rolls into Indianapolis this week, with The Club at Chatham Hills hosting a 54-hole shootout that promises fireworks and controversy in equal measure. With no cuts and guaranteed paydays for all, the rebel tour’s format strips away excuses and leaves only one question: who can deliver when the pressure’s on?

Outright Favourites

Jon Rahm heads the market and rightly so. The Spaniard’s class hasn’t dimmed since his LIV switch, and our analysis puts him at a 13.9% chance of taking this, which translates to around 6/1 in implied terms. That makes the 1000/1 available at bet365 (also 1000/1 PointsBet) look utterly absurd. Yes, you read that correctly. Whether it’s a data error or a bookmaker nightmare, Rahm at four-figure odds represents the sort of value that comes around once in a blue moon. His ability to dominate weaker fields is well-documented, and with a 62% probability of a top-ten finish, he’s the safest banker on the card.

Bryson DeChambeau sits just behind with a 12.6% win probability from BonusDevil’s ratings. The big-hitting American has become LIV’s poster boy, and his game suits the no-cut format where aggressive play carries no penalty for a missed Friday. bet365 offer 2000/1, with DraftKings and PointsBet also at inflated prices. Again, these odds make no logical sense against his actual winning chances, and punters should fill their boots before someone notices the mistake.

Tyrrell Hatton completes the top three with an 8.8% chance. The fiery Englishman thrives when he can let loose without tour etiquette police watching his every move, and LIV’s relaxed atmosphere suits his temperament. bet365 lead the way at 1500/1 (matched by DraftKings), though PointsBet’s 1000/1 edges it. With a 52% top-ten probability, Hatton represents another genuine contender at pricing that belongs in a different universe.

Each-Way Value

Lucas Herbert Each-Way is a name that catches the eye at 250/1 with William Hill. The Australian carries a 6.9% win chance according to our numbers, which puts his fair price closer to 13/1. That’s a canyon-sized gap between probability and market price, and with each-way terms paying 1/5 odds for four places, Herbert becomes a compelling proposition. His 45% top-ten probability suggests he’ll be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

David Puig Each-Way offers another slice of each-way value at 1250/1 with bet365. We rate the young Spaniard at 3.5% to win (around 28/1 implied), and his 32% top-ten probability means backing him to place at 1/5 odds looks more than fair. He’s shown flashes of brilliance on the LIV circuit, and at these inflated prices, a small each-way investment makes plenty of sense.

Cameron Smith Each-Way deserves a mention at 3000/1 with bet365. The Australian mullet-sporting major champion sits at 2.5% in our win probability ratings (39/1 fair value), making this another enormous price discrepancy. His 29% chance of cracking the top ten suggests the bookies have got this one badly wrong, and each-way backers should take note.

Players to Watch

• Joaquin Niemann has been a consistent performer on LIV and comes in with a 7.0% win chance. The pricing looks strange across bookmakers (Sky Bet have him at 0.3/1, which appears to be a formatting error), but his 46% top-ten probability marks him as a serious contender regardless of the odds confusion.
• Tom McKibbin represents the younger generation making waves on the breakaway tour. At 40/1 with bet365 (69/1 DraftKings, 50.87/1 Pinnacle), he carries a 2.6% win probability that puts him in the conversation as a potential dark horse.
• Sergio Garcia may be in the veteran stage of his career, but class is permanent. Available at 80/1 with bet365, the Spaniard’s 0.8% win chance and 14% top-ten probability suggest he can still produce when the mood strikes.

Our Pick