Inter Milan vs Roma Betting Preview, Tips & Odds — 5 April 2026

League Leaders vs Europa Hopefuls

Inter Milan sit top of Serie A on 69 points, 15 clear of Roma in sixth. Cristian Chivu's side have been the best team in Italy for most of this season, and the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on a Sunday evening is about as hostile an environment as Roma will face all year. Gian Piero Gasperini's side are in the mix for European football next season, but right now they look fragile, leaky, and short on confidence.

Inter's form over the last five isn't sparkling by their own standards: a loss at AC Milan, draws against Atalanta and Fiorentina, a goalless cup bore with Como. They've picked up just five points from a possible fifteen in that run. But look at the home record across the season: W11 D2 L2 at the Meazza. This is still a fortress, and a few draws on the road doesn't change that identity.

Roma's recent form is genuinely poor. Three defeats in their last five, including a 4-3 loss to Bologna at home in the Europa League and a 2-1 reverse at Como in Serie A. They've conceded nine goals across those five games. That's not a blip, that's a pattern. Gasperini has plenty to fix.

Injuries Shaping This One

Both squads are dealing with significant absentees, and Inter's look potentially decisive. Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Federico Dimarco, and Marcus Thuram are all listed as missing this fixture. That's your eight-goal midfielder, your creative left-back who leads the team in assists this season, and your third-highest scorer all absent in the same game. Chivu loses three of his most influential players at once.

That said, the headlines suggest Lautaro Martínez is returning at the right time and is set to start alongside a France striker, which points to him partnering up front. With 14 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances this season, Lautaro coming back healthy is huge. Inter have the squad depth to absorb losses, but Thuram and Dimarco missing will hurt the fluency of their attack significantly.

Roma are also dealing with their own problems. Lorenzo Pellegrini, Paulo Dybala, and Angelino are all out, and one headline specifically flags four key players missing for the San Siro trip. Dybala especially is a creative loss. Gasperini will be building his attacking shape without some of his best options.

Head-to-Head and the Betting Angle

The recent H2H is fascinating. Inter won 0-1 at Roma in October of this season. Before that, Roma beat Inter 0-1 at the Meazza back in April 2025. Go back further and Inter won 0-1 at Roma in October 2024, and hammered them 4-2 in Rome in February 2024. Inter have the better record across the last five meetings, with Roma's only win coming away from home.

So what do we make of this? Inter are the superior side on paper, top of the table by a distance, and historically strong at home against Roma. But three key absentees, including Thuram and Dimarco, genuinely blunts their attack. Roma, for all their shaky recent form, have scored in all five of their last games.

The goals market looks interesting here. Both squads are carrying injuries that affect their creative output, but neither side has been clean defensively. Roma have shipped nine in five. Inter's xG might dip without Thuram and Dimarco, but Lautaro returning to lead the line keeps the goal threat very much alive. Goals have come in this fixture: that 4-2 in February 2024 stands out, and Roma's leaky backline on the road (W7 D1 L7 away) makes the Meazza a tough destination.

The match result market has Inter at 1.7, which is fair given the circumstances. With the injuries to key players, I'm not rushing to back them at less than evens. The value play is Over 2.5 Goals at 2.02. Roma concede, Lautaro is back and hungry, and even with Inter's injuries, the attacking quality at home should create enough. Neither defence looks secure right now.