John Deere Classic Betting Tips | July 2026

PGA Tour

The John Deere Classic returns to TPC Deere Run this week, and while it may lack the star power of some PGA Tour stops, there’s serious money to be made for those willing to dig into the details. This tournament rewards ball-strikers who can take advantage of the course’s generous fairways, with approach play the real separator come Sunday. Defending champion Brian Campbell lifted the trophy twelve months ago, but the field this year brings a very different complexion.

Outright Favourites

Scottie Scheffler arrives as the prohibitive favourite, and it’s easy to see why bookmakers have gone short. At 0.73/1 with bet365 (others: 0.83/1 pointsbet, 0.77/1 draftkings), he represents a world number one taking his form to a course where precision matters more than power. Our analysis puts him at 14%, which is around 6/1 implied, so there’s no value at the current price, but there’s little doubting his credentials. A 55% chance of a top-ten finish and virtual certainty to make the cut tells you everything about his consistency. The question isn’t whether Scheffler can win here, it’s whether sub-evens money offers any return worth the outlay.

Xander Schauffele at 1000/1 with Sky Bet (5000/1 draftkings, 2000/1 caesars) presents one of the week’s most baffling prices. We have him at 5%, which translates to around 19/1 fair value, making four-figure odds look downright charitable. His ball-striking metrics suit TPC Deere Run perfectly, and a 33% top-ten probability suggests he’s being dramatically underestimated by the market. If there’s a standout value play in the outright market, Schauffele at these odds demands serious attention.

Tommy Fleetwood completes the front three in our ratings at 4.8% (20/1 implied), but the market has him out at 2500/1 with bet365 (5000/1 draftkings, 2500/1 bovada). The Englishman’s record on American soil has been patchy, but when his iron play clicks, he’s capable of contending anywhere. With a 33% chance of cracking the top ten, the odds suggest bookmakers are pricing in past disappointments rather than current form.

Each-Way Value

Patrick Cantlay Each-Way at 30/1 with bet365 (35.5/1 betcris, 32.32/1 Pinnacle) offers proper each-way appeal with 1/5 odds over five places. BonusDevil’s ratings give him a 3% win chance (32/1 implied), making the 30/1 available a fair price, but it’s the 26% top-ten probability that makes the each-way play attractive. Cantlay’s metronomic consistency means he’s rarely far away when the leaderboard tightens, and at TPC Deere Run, where steady accumulation beats fireworks, he’s built to thrive.

Sam Burns Each-Way represents another solid each-way option at 350/1 with bet365 (350/1 betmgm, 350/1 draftkings). We rate him at 2.6% to win (38/1 implied), so the odds are slightly generous, and crucially, he carries a 23% chance of a top-ten finish. Burns has the game to exploit this course’s emphasis on approach play, and at these odds, the each-way cushion provides plenty of room for a decent week to turn into a profitable bet.

Collin Morikawa Each-Way at 1000/1 with William Hill (1250/1 draftkings, 1000/1 fanduel) feels like another market mispricing. Our analysis has him at 2.5% (40/1 implied), making four-figure odds look exceedingly generous. His iron play has always been his calling card, and with a 23% top-ten probability, there’s genuine each-way value to be exploited. When Morikawa’s ball-striking is on, he controls golf courses, and TPC Deere Run should suit him down to the ground.

Players to Watch

• Brian Campbell (Defending Champion) – Returns as the man who conquered this course twelve months ago. Worth monitoring his early-week form.
• Viktor Hovland – Available at 1.25/1 with bet365, which looks short given we rate him at just 1.9% (53/1 implied). The market is clearly backing name value over current numbers.
• Matt Fitzpatrick – The Sheffield man at 150/1 with bet365 carries a 3.2% win chance (31/1 implied), making those odds look very tasty indeed. A 27% top-ten probability suggests he’s being overlooked.

Our Pick