LIV Golf
The LIV Golf circus rolls into Seoul this week for the Korea event at Asiad Country Club, and while the traditionalists continue to sneer, there’s no denying the quality on show. With the Canadian Grand Prix revving up tomorrow and the PGA Tour seemingly on autopilot, this 54-hole shootout offers punters a compact field packed with value if you know where to look.
The no-cut format means all 48 players go the distance, which changes the betting dynamics entirely. Form matters more than scrambling ability, and with each-way terms at 1/5 odds for four places, there’s scope to get creative beyond the obvious names.
Outright Favourites
Jon Rahm heads the market but represents spectacular value at 33/1 with bet365. Our analysis puts him at 23.6% to win this, which is 3/1 implied odds. The bookies have got this badly wrong, perhaps underestimating his adaptability to the LIV format or overweighting recent noise. With a 73% chance of a top-ten finish, Rahm’s SG metrics suggest he’s operating at a level the field simply cannot match consistently.
Bryson DeChambeau comes in at 28/1 with Sky Bet, and while we have him at 8.4% (11/1 implied), there’s still meat on the bone. His power game suits wider fairways, and his 48% top-ten probability reflects genuine podium potential. Phil Mickelson‘s recent comments about LIV’s team format superiority might be typical bluster, but DeChambeau has clearly embraced the franchise system, and confidence is half the battle in golf.
David Puig at 2500/1 with bet365 is a statistical anomaly. We rate him at 5.4%, which translates to roughly 17/1. That’s not a typo in the data, it’s a market failure. The Spanish youngster clearly isn’t a household name yet, but a 40% top-ten probability at these odds is frankly absurd. This screams each-way interest, even if the outright feels ambitious.
Each-Way Value
Tyrrell Hatton at 750/1 with bet365 represents extraordinary value when you consider we have him at 5.3% (18/1 implied). Each-Way The fiery Englishman thrives on percieved slights, and being priced this generously should provide all the motivation required. With a 41% chance of cracking the top ten, the 1/5 odds across four places makes this a statistical gift.
Thomas Detry is another ludicrous price at 500/1 with bet365 and Betway. Each-Way We rate the Belgian at 4.4% (22/1 implied), and his 38% top-ten probability suggests he’s being criminally underestimated. Perhaps the market is still adjusting to LIV’s depth of field, but Detry’s consistent ball-striking metrics deserve far more respect than this.
Joaquin Niemann rounds out the value plays at 1000/1 with Betway (also 1500/1 at bet365 and DraftKings). Each-Way The Chilean sits at 4.6% in our ratings (21/1 implied), and that 37% top-ten chance provides genuine each-way ammunition. His approach play has been quietly excellent, and this feels like a tournament where patient iron play could trump bombers and spectacle.
Players to Watch
Tom McKibbin at 1500/1 with DraftKings (900/1 with Unibet) represents serious upside for the adventurous punter. His 2.7% win probability equates to roughly 36/1, and while 29% for a top-ten finish isn’t eye-watering, the Northern Irishman has shown flashes of brilliance that could translate into a big week.
Dean Burmester looks overpriced at 66/1 with bet365 given we have him at 3.5% (27/1 implied). The South African’s power game could suit this track, and his 32% top-ten probability suggests consistency rather than volatility.
Sergio Garcia at 3.5/1 with bet365 appears to be a favourite despite modest underlying numbers (0.9% win probability, 106/1 implied). The Spaniard’s name still carries weight in betting markets, but punters should be wary of nostalgia pricing.
Our Pick
Odds: 33/1 – bet365 (others: 40/1 BetMGM, 43/1 DraftKings)
This is as close to a gift as you’ll find in professional golf betting. We have Rahm at 23.6% to win, which is 3/1 implied odds. At 33/1, the bookmakers are offering roughly ten times his true price. His strokes-gained metrics dwarf this field, and with a 73% chance of finishing top ten, even the safety net looks robust. Take the outright, take it multiple times if your bankroll allows, and watch the market correct itself by Thursday evening.
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