Leicester, Monday 25 May: Tips and Best Bets

Leicester, Monday 25 May: Tips and Best Bets

Good ground, sunshine, and a seven-race card at Leicester. The track suits horses that can travel through their race and finish strongly up the straight, and today’s going rewards horses with proper form on a sound surface. Three races stand out for punters looking for angles beyond the obvious market leaders.

2:29 — British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (1m2f, Good)

Snapback (5/1, Boyle Sports and Betfred) is the selection here. John and Thady Gosden send out a debutant with a pedigree tailored for this sort of trip: a half-brother to French middle-distance winners, out of a dam related to a Group 3 winner at a mile and a furlong. The stable’s Leicester record is outstanding at 29%, and Robert Havlin takes the ride. Gosden debutants who ship to a track where the yard fires at nearly one in three are not to be dismissed lightly.

Rogue Defence at 9/4 appeals as the form horse. A Lingfield winner four weeks ago, he carries a 7lb penalty and the mile-and-two trip is an unknown, but Billy Loughnane keeps the ride and the horse showed enough raw ability to be competitive even with the penalty. The main concern is the pedigree question over the extra ground, which is exactly why Snapback at double the price holds appeal.

Spiritoftheblues at 5/1 is also worth noting. David O’Meara’s filly won with plenty in hand at Ayr last August and the step up to a mile-two looks exactly what she needs. The yard has been quiet of late but the horse has talent and the trip suits.

Best bet in this race: Snapback at 5/1, with Rogue Defence as the main danger.

4:15 — Go West Plays Ladies’ Day Handicap (1m2f, Good)

Mythical Bird opens at 11/10 favourite and the price reflects real ability rather than hype. Hughie Morrison has had a sharp 14-day window with two winners from nine runners, and this filly was emphatic at Lingfield in April on her reappearance. The second in that race has won since, which gives the form substance. She goes up 8lb for a first turf handicap start, but the good ground suits and the opposition here is modest: a horse that refuses to race (Diderot), a favourite who has plugged on at one pace over the trip (Rockin’ The Boat), and a seven-year-old who has gone flat lately (Qitaal).

Six runners means each-way terms are only two places at 1/4 odds, which dilutes the appeal of anything other than a win punt at short prices. Back Mythical Bird to win.

Alta Rica at 11/2 is the each-way alternative if you want to oppose the favourite. She ran a creditable race over a mile-four at this track in April and Marcus Tregoning has her in cheekpieces/blinkered now. Dropping back to the shorter trip here and with the lightest weight in the field, she has claims for a place at least, though win confidence is modest.

4:50 — For Best Ticket Deals Handicap (6f, Good, 12 runners)

First Legion at 11/4 (Boyle Sports and LiveScore Bet) is the standout in what looks a competitive sprint handicap. Richard Hannon’s colt has a solid RPR of 97 and his best turf form has come over six furlongs on good to firm ground. The York step up to seven furlongs last time was a minor detour rather than a form reversal, and the spotlight confirms he’s a major contender back at six furlongs on drying ground. Hannon has been busy with ten winners from 55 runners in the last fortnight, the yard is firing, and Alec Voikhansky keeps the ride. At 11/4, this is fair rather than generous value but the profile fits neatly.

Jazl Each-Way at 5/1 (Boyle Sports and Betfred) is the value play underneath. Simon and Ed Crisford have gone cold in the last two weeks at 0/20, which is the one flag against this horse. But the form itself is compelling: Jazl travelled strongly and won with authority at Windsor on reappearance, and the spotlight notes he has real potential now handicapping. Jack Mitchell is a smart booking for a yard that operates at the top level. Normally a cold trainer stat would put you off, but yards come back to form quickly and this horse’s individual profile merits inclusion each-way in a 12-runner handicap paying four places.

Pilu at 6/1 has a bit to find with First Legion on the Newmarket running but Roger Teal’s yard is ticking along and this horse’s two wins as a two-year-old showed real speed. The caveat from the spotlight is fair: First Legion had already had a sharpener before Newmarket, this one had not. If Pilu tightens up from that run, the gap may be closer than the market suggests.

Today’s NAP