Leicester, Saturday 4 July 2026: Tips and Analysis

Leicester, Saturday 4 July 2026: Tips and Analysis

A seven-race card at Leicester on good-to-firm ground, and the three races below offer the clearest angles. The straight six furlongs suits handy, sharp types and the going reports favour horses that travel prominently. James Fanshawe is in red-hot form at this track historically, and that yard stat becomes very relevant this afternoon. Gary and Josh Moore are also worth monitoring, carrying one of the better course records relative to runners here.

2:11 Available Car Selling Stakes (6f, 2yo, Good To Firm)

Selection: Tamam Star (3/1, Boyle Sports and Betfred) | Jockey: Jack Nicholls (5)

The form line of 4339 reads better than it looks at face value. Two thirds and a fourth from his first three starts showed Tamam Star was knocking on the door, and his last run at York, where he was beaten nine lengths in a seller, is easily enough explained. That was a bad day at the office for K R Burke’s colt and the figures suggest he should have gone closer previously.

Back at six furlongs on a sound surface that clearly suits, he is the top-rated runner in this field according to the sectional data, and Burke has been firing at 8/45 over the last fortnight, which is a solid clip for the yard. Jack Nicholls carries a 5lb claim and has an 18% strike rate at this course with an A/E of 0.90, making this a jockey-trainer combination with course form to call on.

Turnstile at 9/4 is consistent but has been third four times in six. Dream On Kent at 4/1 is interesting given David Evans landed this same race twelve months ago, and he has been placed twice recently, but Tamam Star at three times the price with top-rated status is the value call in an 11-runner seller.

Dreamlover Each-Way at 8/1 (Boyle Sports) is worth a small each-way interest. Third at Chester last time in blinkers, drops in grade now, and Richard Spencer has been in form at 3/19 over the fortnight. Three places paid at 1/5 odds in an 11-runner field makes this viable at the price.

2:46 Smooth Radio EBF Novice Stakes (6f, 3yo, Good To Firm)

Selection: Two Commanders (11/4, Boyle Sports and Betfred) | Jockey: Cian Horgan (5)

Anyasi at 4/9 is the obvious favourite and probably wins this. Roger Varian has strong course form here at 20% wins, and Anyasi’s three-length victory at Yarmouth last time was convincing enough. No argument on ability.

The value angle, though, sits with Two Commanders. Edward Bethell’s gelding did exactly what good horses do when stepping forward from a debut: he came back and won. A narrow margin at Catterick over six furlongs last time, but the manner of it mattered. He travelled well, found for pressure, and got the job done. Versatile on good-to-soft or good-to-firm, so today’s surface is no issue at all.

At 11/4 against an odds-on shot, the gap in price looks bigger than the gap in form. Anyasi carries a penalty, which tightens things up further. Cian Horgan (5lb claim) is an added bonus on an improving type. Bucklow Hill is interesting on his reappearance with a tongue-tie, but two runs and a lengthy absence leaves too many unknowns at 4/1.

4:30 KLG Rutland Handicap (7f, 3yo, Good To Firm)

Selection: Mr Writer (9/4, Boyle Sports and Betfred) | Jockey: Daniel Muscutt | Trainer: James Fanshawe

This is where the trainer stats do real work. James Fanshawe has a 18% course win rate at Leicester across 350 runners with an A/E of 1.03, meaning he consistently delivers at this track. Over the last 14 days, the yard has been in particularly sharp form at 7/28. That context matters when assessing Mr Writer.

The last run at Goodwood saw him get tired in the final furlong over a mile, which is a form line you can park immediately. Before that, he had won and collected two places in five starts. The drop back to seven furlongs is the key move. He handles this trip, he handles this ground, and he carries top weight because he has been running well enough to earn it.

Frantic at 15/8 is a short price for a horse whose form line reads 24-227. Plenty of near misses but not converting. The luckless run last time is noted but three placings from the last few starts without a win is a pattern worth respecting. Mr Writer at an industry SP of 9/4 with this trainer-course combination is the sharper play.

Galileo Island at 7/1 Each-Way (Boyle Sports) also catches the eye. His Doncaster run was a stamina blip, not a form collapse. First-time cheekpieces and a return to seven furlongs, where his form reads 1 and two places from recent starts, makes him a live each-way threat at the price.

Today’s NAP

Mr Writer — KLG Rutland Handicap (4:30, Leicester)
Odds: 9/4 — Boyle Sports (others: 9/4 Betfred, 2/1 LiveScore Bet)

James Fanshawe has an 18% course win rate at Leicester and is firing at 7/28 over the last fortnight. Mr Writer’s Goodwood run is a form line to forget completely: he was asked to get a mile on a day when seven furlongs is his trip. A win and multiple places at this sort of distance tell the real story. Daniel Muscutt takes the ride for a yard that knows exactly where to place a horse, and the good-to-firm surface poses no problems. At 9/4 in a small seven-runner field, this is value you can trust.