Leopardstown Sunday Card: Group 3 Treble in the Sights

Leopardstown Sunday Card: Group 3 Treble in the Sights

Good to yielding ground at Leopardstown on a spring Sunday, three Group 3s on the card, and Aidan O'Brien with a hand in virtually every race. The key is identifying where his runners represent genuine value and where the yard's 4/23 strike rate over the last 14 days gives you reason to look elsewhere. There are angles here worth following, and one selection that stands out as a clear bet.

3:55 Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Stakes (Group 3, 7f)

Selection: Dorset at 9/2 (Bet365, William Hill, Coral)

The form book reads well for Dorset. He beat 29 rivals to land the Goffs Million, a race that rarely produces soft winners, then followed up in front-running style in the Killavullan Stakes over this exact course and distance. That C&D Group 3 win is the critical piece of form here. He already knows how to win at Leopardstown over seven furlongs, and the good to yielding ground suits a horse who has shown he handles cut.

The interesting angle is the jockey booking. Ryan Moore, the stable's first-choice rider, has taken Flushing Meadows at a lower RPR (108 versus 113), and Moore doesn't make poor decisions lightly. That gives some reason for pause. But look at it differently: Jack Cleary is 2-2 on Dorset, and this trainer-jockey partnership on this specific horse has been ruthlessly effective. Apprentice riders don't often get booked for Group 3s at Leopardstown unless connections are confident.

Power Blue is the biggest danger. The Phoenix Stakes win was a career-best, and the pedigree suggests seven furlongs is within range. But the trainer Robson De Aguiar is 0/15 over the last 14 days, which is worth factoring in. At 9/2, Dorset is a fair price for a horse that has already won this race over the same course and distance.

4:25 Ballylinch Stud Priory Belle Stakes (Group 3, Fillies, 7f)

Selection: Black Caviar Gold Each-Way at 3/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

True Love heads the market at 7/4 and is not without claims. The RPR of 121 is the highest in the field, Ryan Moore takes the ride, and her 2025 form includes a Group wins. The issue is that her last run was an eighth-place finish, and at 7/4 you're being asked to take a lot on trust about her returning to her very best.

Black Caviar Gold at 3/1 is the better bet. Her form reads 3411, the two wins coming in sequence, and she arrives here in form. P. Twomey's yard has posted 2/12 over the past fortnight, functional rather than red-hot, but the filly's own form justifies the selection independently of yard stats. Her RPR of 114 puts her second-best in the race behind True Love on ratings, and the good to yielding ground should pose no issues.

With 15 runners and four places on offer, this is a race where taking each-way is sensible even at 3/1. If True Love is not fully wound up first time out, Black Caviar Gold has the form to fill the gap. Composing (11/2) is honest but her 11436 form sequence shows inconsistency. This filly looks the more reliable option at bigger odds.

4:55 P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (Group 3, 1m2f)

Selection: Pierre Bonnard at evens (William Hill)

Short price, but the form is there to justify it. Pierre Bonnard won the Zetland Stakes convincingly, beating Endorsement who franked the form by running well subsequently, then went to France and beat A Boy Named Susie at Saint-Cloud on very soft ground. The step up to a mile and two furlongs is exactly what his pedigree calls for, and the good to yielding conditions at Leopardstown will be no obstacle for a horse who has already won on soft.

The race looks set up for him. Christmas Day would need more than a 2lb swing to reverse Saint-Cloud form, and Endorsement dropped away in the final furlong at that same meeting. A Boy Named Susie is the most credible threat at 10/1, having finished two lengths behind Pierre Bonnard with daylight back to the rest. Italy is interesting with the hood on, but he pulled hard in the Dewhurst and needs to settle before he can be trusted in a Group 3 at a mile and a quarter.

Evens is not a price many punters get excited about, but in a nine-runner Group 3 with a clear form horse, this is a straightforward win selection rather than an each-way punt. The Ballysax is often a strong pointer to the classic trials that follow, and Pierre Bonnard looks like the real thing.

Today's NAP