Levante vs Osasuna Betting Tips 2026

A Relegation Scrap With a Point to Prove

Levante are in serious trouble. Sitting 19th with 33 points and a goal difference of -17, Luís Castro's side are staring down relegation with the season closing out. Friday's home fixture against Osasuna at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia is the kind of game they simply cannot afford to lose, and yet the timing couldn't be worse given what just happened in their last outing.

That 1-5 hammering away at Villarreal was brutal. You can dress it up however you like, but shipping five goals on the road is a confidence-wrecking result for a side already fighting for survival. Before that they had back-to-back home wins against Sevilla and Getafe, so there's clearly something there when they're at home with their backs against the wall. But bouncing back from a demolition job is a test of character, and right now Levante's squad don't look like they have it in abundance.

Carlos Espí leads the line with 9 goals in 21 appearances, and Iván Romero and José Luis Morales have both chipped in with 7 each. The attacking firepower is there. Whether Castro can channel it against a well-organised Osasuna side is another question.

Osasuna: Comfortable But Not Clinical

Alessio Lisci's Osasuna arrive in a far more comfortable position. Tenth in La Liga on 42 points, they're mid-table with nothing particularly riding on this beyond pride and consistency. Their form over the last five reads: L, W, L, D, D, which is fine without being convincing. They lost at home to Barcelona, which most teams do, and drew in Alaves and at home to Betis. Not alarming. Not inspiring.

The real danger man is Ante Budimir, who has 16 goals in 33 appearances this season and is easily the most lethal striker in this fixture. That goal threat doesn't disappear just because Osasuna have nothing to play for in terms of the table. Players like Budimir score goals regardless.

Osasuna's away record is poor, W2 D4 L11, so they haven't exactly been touring with authority. But their home record tells a different story, and when you've got nothing to lose on the road, teams can sometimes play with a bit more freedom.

Injuries and Head-to-Head

Levante are missing Carlos Álvarez, Jon Ander Olasagasti, and Kervin Arriaga, all confirmed out for this one. Álvarez in particular is a contributor, having registered 3 goals and an assist in 30 appearances this season. Losing him for a match where you need every resource available isn't ideal. Osasuna, by contrast, go in with a clean bill of health.

Head-to-head records between these sides favour Osasuna. The most recent meeting, earlier this season, saw Osasuna win 2-0 at home. Going further back, Osasuna also won 3-1 at home in 2021/22 and took a 0-1 win at Levante's ground in 2020/21. Levante's only recent bright spot in this rivalry was a 3-1 away win at Osasuna back in 2020/21, and they haven't beaten them since.

The Betting Angle

Levante at home at 2.75 is tempting given they genuinely need the points, and they've shown they can win at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. But the Villarreal result, the injury absences, and Osasuna's Budimir problem all chip away at the case for backing them.

What stands out more is the goals market. Both sides have shown a willingness to concede, Levante shipped 7 in their last five, Osasuna 7 in theirs. The 1-5 and the 2-2 in Alaves both point to matches that get stretched. Levante need to attack to stay up. Osasuna have a striker in brilliant form. Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 feels too risky for a game with these dynamics.

Over 2.5 goals at 2.06 is the value here. A desperate home side pushing forward, a prolific striker on the other end, and form that consistently produces goals at both ends. This has the makings of a match that goes north of three.