Limerick, Thursday 21 May: Tips and Best Bets

Limerick, Thursday 21 May: Tips and Best Bets

A Thursday evening card at Limerick with light rain threatening to nudge the going towards the softer end of good to yielding. Three races to focus on, covering a mares chase, a 12-runner handicap chase, and a beginners’ chase that has a few interesting angles beneath the obvious market leaders. Henry De Bromhead has been operating at a solid clip lately with nine winners from 43 runners in the last 14 days, so anything carrying his colours deserves respect. Let’s get into it.

5:18 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Chase (2m4f)

Selection: Look To The West (11/10, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

The De Bromhead yard is in form, and on ratings alone this mare is in a different class to most of what she faces. Rated 135 over fences with an RPR of 152, she is the standout performer in the field. The caveat is obvious: she has fallen on her last two starts, so she comes with jumping uncertainty baked in at a short price.

Still, this is a five-runner field and she is up against a market rival in Affinity Rock who is barely a chase maiden, having made her chasing debut just once at Killarney. Broomfield Bijou was tailed off in a Punchestown mares’ Grade 2 last time and has rarely delivered when asked in decent company. The drop in class suits Broomfield Bijou on paper, but she has a habit of disappointing.

Look To The West simply has to jump cleanly. If she does, she wins. Darragh O’Keeffe gets the leg here in the handicap chase later, so the yard’s riding arrangements are worth noting, but at odds-on you need to trust the class. The 11/10 is thin enough that this is win-only territory.

8:18 — Bet With Tote On Racing and Sports Handicap Chase (3m½f, 12 runners)

Selection: Aclass Each-Way (5/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

Twelve runners over a staying trip at Limerick, and the form pointer is sitting right in front of us. Aclass was beaten a neck over this exact course and distance last time out, going down narrowly to Nettuno Italia and now finds himself 3lb better off. That is a straightforward each-way proposition in a big-field handicap chase.

The Jordan Canavan claim does carry a question mark, but the 7lb allowance more than compensates at this level, and the horse shaped well here in April over the shorter trip, suggesting the step up to 3m half a furlong suits. His sole win came on soft ground at Tramore, and the light rain at Limerick today keeps conditions in his comfort zone.

Nastya at 9/2 for De Bromhead is the obvious danger. She won a beginners’ chase on yielding ground and was travelling well when falling at Down Royal, with the race winner now rated higher than she is. A six-month absence is the concern. Battle Of Mirbat is honest but the spotlight notes he needs more help from the handicapper. Harbour Highway is interesting upped in trip but the rain is a negative for him according to the form assessors, which matters today.

Aclass at 5/1 each-way in a 12-runner handicap, having been beaten a neck over the same track last time and now 3lb better off, is a clean, logical angle. Four places at 1/5 odds.

5:48 — Mann Family and Richard Egan Electrical Beginners Chase (2m4f, 7 runners)

Selection: Shadow Paddy (6/1, Boyle Sports/Betfred/LiveScore Bet)

The market is split between Ocastle Des Mottes at 13/8 and Le Coq Hardi at 2/1, but neither is without significant question marks for a chasing debut at this level. Shadow Paddy at 6/1 offers real each-way appeal and potentially more.

This horse has climbed the hurdles ladder at pace, going from a low-grade handicap at Tipperary to winning at Listed level here at Limerick in October on yielding ground. The same course, similar ground conditions, and the top hurdles rating in the field. Yes, Grade 1 company at Aintree last month was a bridge too far, but nobody expects him to beat Grade 1 performers. He drops back here to a beginners’ chase and arrives as the most accomplished jumper in the field on hurdles form.

Le Coq Hardi was pulled up at Ascot last November and hasn’t been seen since. He goes well fresh according to the form notes, and his hurdles wins came on good ground which today’s conditions roughly match. But 2/1 for a horse off a long absence in a chasing debut feels short. Ocastle Des Mottes has Paul Townend taking over for the first time over fences, which is a strong signal from Willie Mullins, but the 23-length fourth at Cork on return from a year off is a concern. Townend’s booking absolutely upgrades the chance, so he cannot be ignored.

Shadow Paddy at 6/1 suits the ground, knows the course, and arrives with strong hurdles credentials. The value is here.

Today’s NAP